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dota_factory/docs/balancing/history.md

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# Balancing History
Chronological record of the balancing work: what was decided, what was
found, what changed. Current values live in `derived.md`; this file
explains how they got there.
## 2026-07-02/03 — rules and structural decisions
- Rules document written (now `rules.md`): ratio curve, shortcut
recipes, refactorability, cost archetypes, threat model, growth curve.
- Scrap derived from threat (`scrap_per_threat`), replacing authored
per-ship scrap drops; scrap threat became the constant
`1/scrap_per_threat`, removing the old min-scrap_drop derivation and
its circularity.
- Duplicate schematic drops removed (no level-ups); ship/module levels
removed entirely — all time scaling lives in the threat rate, push
scaling stays on stations. Mk2 upgrade recipes noted as the future
per-item progression.
- Growth-curve rules added: escalating expansion costs, designed
doubling time, growth limited by economy not waiting; resource
deposits designed (deposit-gated mid resource in expansion territory).
- Production tree v2 decided: iron/copper everywhere (M-type asteroid),
quartz in geodes (mid), voidsteel battle-forged from scrap (late);
titanium dropped; lasers renamed to railguns, lasers reserved as a
future weapon type.
## 2026-07-03 — targets, tree, numbers
- Balancing targets fixed: ≤2 h run, phases 15/614/15+, factory curve
25/60/120/150, threat ladder, 25-ship swarm, block roots.
- Tree structure drafted and numbers computed (recursive threat
calculator); ratio curve realized; fitted ships within 96124% of the
strawman ladder (small end hot from fixed chain overhead — ladder
later adopted the achieved values).
- **Rule bugs found by the numbers work:** the scrap→ingot smelter
recipe would inflate basic materials via the max rule (fixed:
scrap-consuming recipes are threat fallback only); recipe output
amounts were ignored (fixed: per-unit division); items downstream of
reprocessing-only items never resolved (fixed: fixpoint resolution);
a shortcut recipe resolving earlier than the base path silently
underpriced items (fixed: commit only when all eligible recipes are
computable). All four fixed in `ThreatCostCalculator` with tests, and
implemented in `tools/threat_report.py`.
- v2 tree written into the configs; `default_modules` loadouts
geometry-validated (the numbers-pass loadouts for battlecruiser and
dreadnought were geometrically impossible — L-modifiers don't fit
beside full gun complements; corrected loadouts landed closer to the
ladder).
## 2026-07-04 — combat stats, arena rounds 15
Initial stats derived from the anchors (weapon DPS ≈0.6/threat flat,
hull 15 HP/threat, armor 20/threat, repair 2 HP/s/threat, station
range 200).
- **Round 1:** concentrated fleets won all equal-threat cross-tier
matchups flawlessly; glass beat armored; repair escort flawless; two
stations shrugged off a 3× swarm. Changes: concentration tax on m/l
gun damage (railgun_m 17→14, railgun_l 70→52), armor 640→1000,
repair 25→12, station range 200→120. (Team-1 "bias" in mirrors later
shown to be noise.)
- **Round 2 (EHP-margin logging added):** battleship +33% while
dreadnought 37% (stabilizer range + opposing armor); glass still
+11%. Changes: stabilizer range ×1.5→×1.3; per-hull trims introduced
(BC 2700→2500, BS 7500→7000, DN/CV 15500→19000).
- **Round 3 (narrow lanes — geometry fixed into the fixture):**
DN closed to 11%, BS +22%, swarm flipped to +14% over cruisers,
glass +12% third time. Changes: armor 1000→1200, BC 2500→2000,
BS 7000→6300, DN/CV 19000→22500.
- **Round 4:** glass-vs-armored resolved (+3% armored); noise floor
established (~±10%/run: BS ignored a 10% EHP cut; repair drifted
14→24% untouched). Convergence policy adopted: two-round signals only,
±20% converged. Changes: BC 2000→2200, DN/CV 22500→24000; BS +23%
accepted as doctrine texture (mechanical range edge vs. pure small
fleets).
- **Round 5 (durations logged; end-condition bug fixed upstream):**
TTK anchor validated (mirrors 23/71/95 s; DN-vs-swarm 214 s outlier
accepted); dreadnought +3%, everything else inside band. Final
changes: BC 2200→2400, repair 12→9 (persistent +24% escort margin).
**Combat pass declared converged.**
## 2026-07-05/06 — pacing pass
- Unlock ladder set (starting set drone/frigate/railgun_s/salvager;
quartz gate at level 2; capitals at 89 with `unlock_requires`
chains); threat rate `2*x + 0.15*x*x`; starting blocks 1000→200;
expansion 400 flat pending the cost formula; artifacts 3→5.
- **Bug found:** the building_block recipe was silently locked at game
start (building blocks appear in no schematic's materials, so implicit
unlocking could never reach the recipe) — fixed with an explicit
`unlock_at_station_level = -1`.
- Expansion cost formula implemented and set (`300 + 50*x + 10*x*x`):
quadratic, so costs outrun the roughly linear block income gradually
— ~1 expansion per cycle mid-game, 23 cycles apart late.
- **First full balancing round complete.** Next: full-game playtests
against the run-shape targets.