Combat stats round 3 from arena round 2 margins

Round 2 (with the new EHP-margin logging): mirrors healthy and the
round-1 side bias was noise; drones-vs-cruisers (10%) and
mixed-vs-battlecruisers (14%) near parity; battleship over at +33%
while dreadnought under at -37%; glass-vs-armored narrowed to 11%
(watch); repair escort fair at 11%; two-to-one decisive; the 3x swarm
now cracks the station set at 13%.

Round-3 knobs: weapon_stabilizer range multiplier 1.5 -> 1.3 (range is
the strongest stat under the orbit AI, and the stabilized battleship
was the one loadout still overperforming), plus per-hull HP trims with
the 15 HP/threat anchor demoted to a prior and per-hull HP documented
as the empirical trim knob: battlecruiser 2700 -> 2500, battleship
7500 -> 7000, dreadnought/carrier 15500 -> 19000.

Action items: mirror-bias and EHP-logging items resolved (the latter
implemented upstream); new item to verify the arena end condition seen
idling in round 1 with all ships dead.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DyCu8vwChKMbLJQ3xosYEN

bin/app/data/config/modules.toml

@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ fill_color = "#FF4040"
 glyph = "Ws"
 
 [module.weapon]
-multiplied_attack_range_m = 1.5
+multiplied_attack_range_m = 1.3
 multiplied_attack_rate_hz = 0.8
 
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

bin/app/data/config/ships.toml

@@ -179,7 +179,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 5
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 2700
+hp = 2500
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 20
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battleship_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 6
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 7500
+hp = 7000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 15
@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 15500
+hp = 19000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10
@@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 15500
+hp = 19000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10

docs/content_design.md

@@ -455,8 +455,12 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
   survivability, range, no losses-to-attrition of own DPS) is worth
   paying for, so bigger guns get less raw DPS per threat.
 - **Hull HP = 15 per threat of hull contribution** (incl. ship base
-  time): drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550, cruiser 1500,
-  battlecruiser 2700, battleship 7500, dreadnought/carrier 15500.
+  time) as the *prior*; per-hull HP is the empirical trim knob for
+  arena results (guns are shared across many hulls, so gun changes move
+  many matchups at once — hull HP moves exactly one). Current values
+  after round-2 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
+  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2500, battleship 7000,
+  dreadnought/carrier 19000.
 - **Armor HP ≈ 31 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
   because armor is pure HP with no capability, and fights snowball:
   killing enemies removes their DPS, while surviving merely delays —
@@ -482,7 +486,10 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
 - **Weapon modifiers are capital economy:** ×1.2 damage at 22.5 threat
   beats adding a gun once a ship carries more than ~68 threat of weapons
   — so modifiers pay off on gun-heavy big hulls and are a waste on small
-  ones. Kept at ×1.2/×1.2/(×1.5 range, ×0.8 rate) deliberately.
+  ones. Damage/rate kept at ×1.2; the stabilizer's range multiplier was
+  cut ×1.5 → ×1.3 after round 2 — range is the strongest stat in the
+  orbit-AI's hands (free approach fire), and the stabilized battleship
+  was the one loadout still overperforming.
 - **Stations:** a fresh player station (3000 HP, 25 dmg × 1 Hz,
   range 120) holds one early parity wave unaided; the enemy station at
   level 0 matches it exactly and scales per push level
@@ -507,6 +514,21 @@ DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range
 still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next
 suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts.
 
+**Arena round 2 results (2026-07-04, with EHP-margin logging):** the
+mirror "bias" was noise — repeated runs split randomly, and winners
+finish at 5–7% EHP (near-mutual annihilation, healthy). Drones vs
+cruisers 10% and mixed vs battlecruisers 14% — near parity. The two
+capital fights diverged: battleship beat frigates at +33% while the
+dreadnought lost to destroyers at −37% — same guns, so the difference
+is the destroyers carrying the buffed armor plus the battleship's
+stabilizer putting all its guns at 75–150 m against 50 m opponents.
+Glass vs armored narrowed to 11% (watch; if it persists, armor
+1000→1200). Repair escort 11% — fair. Two-to-one decisive at 80%;
+station assault cracked by the 3× swarm at 13% (stations strong but
+breakable). Round-3 knob changes: stabilizer range ×1.5→×1.3, and
+per-hull HP trims — battlecruiser 2700→2500, battleship 7500→7000,
+dreadnought/carrier 15500→19000.
+
 ## Balancing targets (first pass, July 2026)
 
 The six root numbers for the balancing pass. Every derived value (threat

docs/progression_design.md

@@ -373,15 +373,9 @@ in `requirements.md` and the git history). Still open:
    one matching deposit tile). Touches REQ-BLD-MINER ("every asteroid
    tile is equivalent" no longer holds), REQ-GW-ASTEROID-EXPAND /
    REQ-EXP-*, `world.toml`, and `visuals.toml`.
-6. **Investigate team-1 bias in balancing arenas.** In arena round 1
-   (July 2026), team 1 won all three mirror matches with large margins
-   (8/20, 3/6, 1/2 survivors). Re-run mirrors repeatedly; if team 1
-   wins consistently, find and fix the asymmetry (spawn geometry, tick
-   processing order, target-selection tie-breaking). Mirror matches
-   must be statistically symmetric or every arena result carries a
-   side-dependent error.
-7. **Log remaining HP in the balancing arena results.** Win/loss alone
-   hides the margin ("1/1 battleship" can mean 95% or 5% HP left). Add
-   the surviving entities' remaining HP fraction (or a per-team total
-   EHP percentage) to the arena end state, so equal-threat matchups can
-   be tuned toward near-draws quantitatively.
+6. **Verify the balancing arena end condition.** Arena round 1's
+   station-assault log showed the arena "(running)" with every ship on
+   both sides destroyed — per REQ-BAL-SIM-END the station-less team
+   should have lost the moment its last ship died. Round 2 ended
+   correctly, so it may only be a log-snapshot artifact; confirm, and
+   fix the end condition if it can genuinely idle in that state.