Combat stats round 5: final nudges and convergence policy

Round 4: mirrors 0-3%, swarm vs cruisers +7%, glass vs armored
resolved at +3% for armored (armor 1200 confirmed). Noise floor
established at ~+/-10% per single run (battleship margin ignored a
-10% EHP cut; repair drifted 14->24% with no repair changes).

Round-5 nudges for the armor-coupling overshoots: battlecruiser hull
2000 -> 2200, dreadnought/carrier 22500 -> 24000 (two-round
persistent deficit vs destroyers). The battleship's +23% over a pure
frigate fleet is accepted as doctrine texture rather than chased: the
edge is mechanical (range) and the fair anti-capital answer is the
mixed fleet, whose arena is balanced. Convergence policy documented:
act only on two-round signals, +/-20% counts as converged for v1.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DyCu8vwChKMbLJQ3xosYEN

bin/app/data/config/ships.toml

@@ -179,7 +179,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 5
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 2000
+hp = 2200
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 20
@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 22500
+hp = 24000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10
@@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 22500
+hp = 24000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10

docs/content_design.md

@@ -458,9 +458,9 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
   time) as the *prior*; per-hull HP is the empirical trim knob for
   arena results (guns are shared across many hulls, so gun changes move
   many matchups at once — hull HP moves exactly one). Current values
-  after round-3 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
-  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2000, battleship 6300,
-  dreadnought/carrier 22500. (The capital hulls sit well above the
+  after round-4 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
+  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2200, battleship 6300,
+  dreadnought/carrier 24000. (The capital hulls sit well above the
   15/threat prior while their guns sit below the DPS prior — the arena
   consistently prices big ships as tanks with taxed guns.)
 - **Armor HP ≈ 37 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
@@ -517,6 +517,22 @@ DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range
 still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next
 suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts.
 
+**Arena round 4 results (2026-07-04) and convergence policy:** mirrors
+at 0–3%; swarm vs cruisers +7%; glass vs armored resolved at +3% for
+armored (armor 1200 confirmed after four rounds of signal). Noise
+floor established: the battleship held +23% straight through a −10%
+EHP cut, and repair drifted 14→24% with no repair changes — single-run
+margins move ~±10% on a re-roll. Policy from here: only act on signals
+that persist two rounds; treat anything inside ±20% as converged for
+v1 (real-game playtests refine further). Armor-coupling overshoots
+corrected in round 5: battlecruiser 2000→2200, dreadnought/carrier
+22500→24000 (two-round persistent deficit vs destroyers). **Accepted,
+not chased:** the stabilized battleship beats a pure frigate fleet by
+~23% — the edge survived a stat cut, so it is mechanical (range), and
+"the extreme smallest-ship fleet modestly loses to a range-fitted
+capital" is desirable doctrine texture; the fair anti-capital answer
+is the mixed fleet, whose arena is balanced.
+
 **Arena round 3 results (2026-07-04, narrow lanes):** arenas were
 narrowed (height 10) so fleets can no longer pass each other — arena
 geometry is part of the fixture from here on; margins are only