From db7a03dc1fd89646b2ff435a1842a782feccfea9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Malte Langkabel Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2026 07:56:52 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Combat stats round 5: final nudges and convergence policy Round 4: mirrors 0-3%, swarm vs cruisers +7%, glass vs armored resolved at +3% for armored (armor 1200 confirmed). Noise floor established at ~+/-10% per single run (battleship margin ignored a -10% EHP cut; repair drifted 14->24% with no repair changes). Round-5 nudges for the armor-coupling overshoots: battlecruiser hull 2000 -> 2200, dreadnought/carrier 22500 -> 24000 (two-round persistent deficit vs destroyers). The battleship's +23% over a pure frigate fleet is accepted as doctrine texture rather than chased: the edge is mechanical (range) and the fair anti-capital answer is the mixed fleet, whose arena is balanced. Convergence policy documented: act only on two-round signals, +/-20% counts as converged for v1. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DyCu8vwChKMbLJQ3xosYEN --- bin/app/data/config/ships.toml | 6 +++--- docs/content_design.md | 22 +++++++++++++++++++--- 2 files changed, 22 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml b/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml index 29cfe36..8349a45 100644 --- a/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml +++ b/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml @@ -179,7 +179,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}] production_time_seconds = 5 [ship.health] -hp = 2000 +hp = 2200 [ship.movement] speed_mps = 20 @@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}] production_time_seconds = 8 [ship.health] -hp = 22500 +hp = 24000 [ship.movement] speed_mps = 10 @@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}] production_time_seconds = 8 [ship.health] -hp = 22500 +hp = 24000 [ship.movement] speed_mps = 10 diff --git a/docs/content_design.md b/docs/content_design.md index 57118ac..f72b8d7 100644 --- a/docs/content_design.md +++ b/docs/content_design.md @@ -458,9 +458,9 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second. time) as the *prior*; per-hull HP is the empirical trim knob for arena results (guns are shared across many hulls, so gun changes move many matchups at once — hull HP moves exactly one). Current values - after round-3 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550, - cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2000, battleship 6300, - dreadnought/carrier 22500. (The capital hulls sit well above the + after round-4 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550, + cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2200, battleship 6300, + dreadnought/carrier 24000. (The capital hulls sit well above the 15/threat prior while their guns sit below the DPS prior — the arena consistently prices big ships as tanks with taxed guns.) - **Armor HP ≈ 37 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15) @@ -517,6 +517,22 @@ DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts. +**Arena round 4 results (2026-07-04) and convergence policy:** mirrors +at 0–3%; swarm vs cruisers +7%; glass vs armored resolved at +3% for +armored (armor 1200 confirmed after four rounds of signal). Noise +floor established: the battleship held +23% straight through a −10% +EHP cut, and repair drifted 14→24% with no repair changes — single-run +margins move ~±10% on a re-roll. Policy from here: only act on signals +that persist two rounds; treat anything inside ±20% as converged for +v1 (real-game playtests refine further). Armor-coupling overshoots +corrected in round 5: battlecruiser 2000→2200, dreadnought/carrier +22500→24000 (two-round persistent deficit vs destroyers). **Accepted, +not chased:** the stabilized battleship beats a pure frigate fleet by +~23% — the edge survived a stat cut, so it is mechanical (range), and +"the extreme smallest-ship fleet modestly loses to a range-fitted +capital" is desirable doctrine texture; the fair anti-capital answer +is the mixed fleet, whose arena is balanced. + **Arena round 3 results (2026-07-04, narrow lanes):** arenas were narrowed (height 10) so fleets can no longer pass each other — arena geometry is part of the fixture from here on; margins are only