continue first full balancing round

bin/app/data/config/modules.toml

@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ fill_color = "#808080"
 glyph = "A"
 
 [module.health]
-added_hp = 1000
+added_hp = 1200
 
 
 [[module]]
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ fill_color = "#FF4040"
 glyph = "Ws"
 
 [module.weapon]
-multiplied_attack_range_m = 1.5
+multiplied_attack_range_m = 1.3
 multiplied_attack_rate_hz = 0.8
 
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

bin/app/data/config/ships.toml

@@ -179,7 +179,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 5
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 2700
+hp = 2200
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 20
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ materials = [{item = "battleship_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 6
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 7500
+hp = 6300
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 15
@@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 15500
+hp = 24000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10
@@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 15500
+hp = 24000
 
 [ship.movement]
 speed_mps = 10

bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Mirror: drones 20v20"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Mirror: cruisers 6v6"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Mirror: battleships 2v2"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Drone swarm vs cruisers (462 vs 467)"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Frigates vs battleship (705 vs 723)"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Destroyers vs dreadnought (1485 vs 1492)"
-height_tiles = 40
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Cruisers vs carrier (1401 vs 1437, carrier expected to lose)"
-height_tiles = 40
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -240,7 +240,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Mixed mid vs battlecruisers (1394 vs 1418)"
-height_tiles = 40
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -285,7 +285,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Two to one (must be decisive)"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -314,7 +314,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Armored vs glass destroyers (1188 vs 1196)"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -350,7 +350,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Repair escort vs raw numbers (444 vs 444)"
-height_tiles = 30
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
@@ -391,7 +391,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
 [[arena]]
 name = "Station assault (2 stations + 105 vs 315)"
-height_tiles = 60
+height_tiles = 10
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 15
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 40
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 15

docs/content_design.md

@@ -455,14 +455,21 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
   survivability, range, no losses-to-attrition of own DPS) is worth
   paying for, so bigger guns get less raw DPS per threat.
 - **Hull HP = 15 per threat of hull contribution** (incl. ship base
-  time): drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550, cruiser 1500,
-  battlecruiser 2700, battleship 7500, dreadnought/carrier 15500.
-- **Armor HP ≈ 31 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
+  time) as the *prior*; per-hull HP is the empirical trim knob for
+  arena results (guns are shared across many hulls, so gun changes move
+  many matchups at once — hull HP moves exactly one). Current values
+  after round-4 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
+  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2200, battleship 6300,
+  dreadnought/carrier 24000. (The capital hulls sit well above the
+  15/threat prior while their guns sit below the DPS prior — the arena
+  consistently prices big ships as tanks with taxed guns.)
+- **Armor HP ≈ 37 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
   because armor is pure HP with no capability, and fights snowball:
   killing enemies removes their DPS, while surviving merely delays —
   so a point of HP must be cheaper than a point of DPS.
-  armor_plates adds 1000 HP at 32 threat (arena round 1: at 640 the
-  all-guns destroyer beat the armored one).
+  armor_plates adds 1200 HP at 32 threat (raised from 640 → 1000 →
+  1200: the all-guns destroyer beat the armored one in three
+  consecutive arena rounds).
 - **TTK check:** a mirror cruiser duel (51 DPS vs 2140 EHP) lasts ~42 s —
   inside the 30–60 s parity-fight band implied by the 25-ship fleet
   target. Capital mirrors run longer (~90 s), deliberately.
@@ -482,7 +489,10 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
 - **Weapon modifiers are capital economy:** ×1.2 damage at 22.5 threat
   beats adding a gun once a ship carries more than ~68 threat of weapons
   — so modifiers pay off on gun-heavy big hulls and are a waste on small
-  ones. Kept at ×1.2/×1.2/(×1.5 range, ×0.8 rate) deliberately.
+  ones. Damage/rate kept at ×1.2; the stabilizer's range multiplier was
+  cut ×1.5 → ×1.3 after round 2 — range is the strongest stat in the
+  orbit-AI's hands (free approach fire), and the stabilized battleship
+  was the one loadout still overperforming.
 - **Stations:** a fresh player station (3000 HP, 25 dmg × 1 Hz,
   range 120) holds one early parity wave unaided; the enemy station at
   level 0 matches it exactly and scales per push level
@@ -507,6 +517,54 @@ DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range
 still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next
 suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts.
 
+**Arena round 4 results (2026-07-04) and convergence policy:** mirrors
+at 0–3%; swarm vs cruisers +7%; glass vs armored resolved at +3% for
+armored (armor 1200 confirmed after four rounds of signal). Noise
+floor established: the battleship held +23% straight through a −10%
+EHP cut, and repair drifted 14→24% with no repair changes — single-run
+margins move ~±10% on a re-roll. Policy from here: only act on signals
+that persist two rounds; treat anything inside ±20% as converged for
+v1 (real-game playtests refine further). Armor-coupling overshoots
+corrected in round 5: battlecruiser 2000→2200, dreadnought/carrier
+22500→24000 (two-round persistent deficit vs destroyers). **Accepted,
+not chased:** the stabilized battleship beats a pure frigate fleet by
+~23% — the edge survived a stat cut, so it is mechanical (range), and
+"the extreme smallest-ship fleet modestly loses to a range-fitted
+capital" is desirable doctrine texture; the fair anti-capital answer
+is the mixed fleet, whose arena is balanced.
+
+**Arena round 3 results (2026-07-04, narrow lanes):** arenas were
+narrowed (height 10) so fleets can no longer pass each other — arena
+geometry is part of the fixture from here on; margins are only
+comparable within the same geometry. Results: mirrors healthy (1–7%);
+dreadnought closed to −11%; battleship improved to +22% (still over);
+drone swarm now beats cruisers by 14% (full engagement in the narrow
+lane favors numbers); mixed vs battlecruisers +18%; glass beat armored
+for the third consecutive round (+12%); repair 14%, two-to-one 78%,
+station set cracked at 51% by the 3× swarm (geometry changed under the
+stations — watch before touching stats). Round-4 knob changes:
+armor_plates 1000→1200 (the persistent glass signal; also lifts the
+armor-carrying cruiser/BC/destroyer/DN loadouts), battlecruiser hull
+2500→2000 (net −300 EHP after its armor gain), battleship 7000→6300
+(no armor in its loadout, clean −10%), dreadnought/carrier
+19000→22500 (the opposing destroyers gain armor too, so the DN needs
+the larger step).
+
+**Arena round 2 results (2026-07-04, with EHP-margin logging):** the
+mirror "bias" was noise — repeated runs split randomly, and winners
+finish at 5–7% EHP (near-mutual annihilation, healthy). Drones vs
+cruisers 10% and mixed vs battlecruisers 14% — near parity. The two
+capital fights diverged: battleship beat frigates at +33% while the
+dreadnought lost to destroyers at −37% — same guns, so the difference
+is the destroyers carrying the buffed armor plus the battleship's
+stabilizer putting all its guns at 75–150 m against 50 m opponents.
+Glass vs armored narrowed to 11% (watch; if it persists, armor
+1000→1200). Repair escort 11% — fair. Two-to-one decisive at 80%;
+station assault cracked by the 3× swarm at 13% (stations strong but
+breakable). Round-3 knob changes: stabilizer range ×1.5→×1.3, and
+per-hull HP trims — battlecruiser 2700→2500, battleship 7500→7000,
+dreadnought/carrier 15500→19000.
+
 ## Balancing targets (first pass, July 2026)
 
 The six root numbers for the balancing pass. Every derived value (threat

docs/progression_design.md

@@ -373,15 +373,9 @@ in `requirements.md` and the git history). Still open:
    one matching deposit tile). Touches REQ-BLD-MINER ("every asteroid
    tile is equivalent" no longer holds), REQ-GW-ASTEROID-EXPAND /
    REQ-EXP-*, `world.toml`, and `visuals.toml`.
-6. **Investigate team-1 bias in balancing arenas.** In arena round 1
-   (July 2026), team 1 won all three mirror matches with large margins
-   (8/20, 3/6, 1/2 survivors). Re-run mirrors repeatedly; if team 1
-   wins consistently, find and fix the asymmetry (spawn geometry, tick
-   processing order, target-selection tie-breaking). Mirror matches
-   must be statistically symmetric or every arena result carries a
-   side-dependent error.
-7. **Log remaining HP in the balancing arena results.** Win/loss alone
-   hides the margin ("1/1 battleship" can mean 95% or 5% HP left). Add
-   the surviving entities' remaining HP fraction (or a per-team total
-   EHP percentage) to the arena end state, so equal-threat matchups can
-   be tuned toward near-draws quantitatively.
+6. **Verify the balancing arena end condition.** Arena round 1's
+   station-assault log showed the arena "(running)" with every ship on
+   both sides destroyed — per REQ-BAL-SIM-END the station-less team
+   should have lost the moment its last ship died. Round 2 ended
+   correctly, so it may only be a log-snapshot artifact; confirm, and
+   fix the end condition if it can genuinely idle in that state.