Restructure balancing docs into docs/balancing/

docs/balancing/history.md

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+# Balancing History
+
+Chronological record of the balancing work: what was decided, what was
+found, what changed. Current values live in `derived.md`; this file
+explains how they got there.
+
+## 2026-07-02/03 — rules and structural decisions
+
+- Rules document written (now `rules.md`): ratio curve, shortcut
+  recipes, refactorability, cost archetypes, threat model, growth curve.
+- Scrap derived from threat (`scrap_per_threat`), replacing authored
+  per-ship scrap drops; scrap threat became the constant
+  `1/scrap_per_threat`, removing the old min-scrap_drop derivation and
+  its circularity.
+- Duplicate schematic drops removed (no level-ups); ship/module levels
+  removed entirely — all time scaling lives in the threat rate, push
+  scaling stays on stations. Mk2 upgrade recipes noted as the future
+  per-item progression.
+- Growth-curve rules added: escalating expansion costs, designed
+  doubling time, growth limited by economy not waiting; resource
+  deposits designed (deposit-gated mid resource in expansion territory).
+- Production tree v2 decided: iron/copper everywhere (M-type asteroid),
+  quartz in geodes (mid), voidsteel battle-forged from scrap (late);
+  titanium dropped; lasers renamed to railguns, lasers reserved as a
+  future weapon type.
+
+## 2026-07-03 — targets, tree, numbers
+
+- Balancing targets fixed: ≤2 h run, phases 1–5/6–14/15+, factory curve
+  25/60/120/150, threat ladder, 25-ship swarm, block roots.
+- Tree structure drafted and numbers computed (recursive threat
+  calculator); ratio curve realized; fitted ships within 96–124% of the
+  strawman ladder (small end hot from fixed chain overhead — ladder
+  later adopted the achieved values).
+- **Rule bugs found by the numbers work:** the scrap→ingot smelter
+  recipe would inflate basic materials via the max rule (fixed:
+  scrap-consuming recipes are threat fallback only); recipe output
+  amounts were ignored (fixed: per-unit division); items downstream of
+  reprocessing-only items never resolved (fixed: fixpoint resolution);
+  a shortcut recipe resolving earlier than the base path silently
+  underpriced items (fixed: commit only when all eligible recipes are
+  computable). All four fixed in `ThreatCostCalculator` with tests, and
+  implemented in `tools/threat_report.py`.
+- v2 tree written into the configs; `default_modules` loadouts
+  geometry-validated (the numbers-pass loadouts for battlecruiser and
+  dreadnought were geometrically impossible — L-modifiers don't fit
+  beside full gun complements; corrected loadouts landed closer to the
+  ladder).
+
+## 2026-07-04 — combat stats, arena rounds 1–5
+
+Initial stats derived from the anchors (weapon DPS ≈0.6/threat flat,
+hull 15 HP/threat, armor 20/threat, repair 2 HP/s/threat, station
+range 200).
+
+- **Round 1:** concentrated fleets won all equal-threat cross-tier
+  matchups flawlessly; glass beat armored; repair escort flawless; two
+  stations shrugged off a 3× swarm. Changes: concentration tax on m/l
+  gun damage (railgun_m 17→14, railgun_l 70→52), armor 640→1000,
+  repair 25→12, station range 200→120. (Team-1 "bias" in mirrors later
+  shown to be noise.)
+- **Round 2 (EHP-margin logging added):** battleship +33% while
+  dreadnought −37% (stabilizer range + opposing armor); glass still
+  +11%. Changes: stabilizer range ×1.5→×1.3; per-hull trims introduced
+  (BC 2700→2500, BS 7500→7000, DN/CV 15500→19000).
+- **Round 3 (narrow lanes — geometry fixed into the fixture):**
+  DN closed to −11%, BS +22%, swarm flipped to +14% over cruisers,
+  glass +12% third time. Changes: armor 1000→1200, BC 2500→2000,
+  BS 7000→6300, DN/CV 19000→22500.
+- **Round 4:** glass-vs-armored resolved (+3% armored); noise floor
+  established (~±10%/run: BS ignored a −10% EHP cut; repair drifted
+  14→24% untouched). Convergence policy adopted: two-round signals only,
+  ±20% converged. Changes: BC 2000→2200, DN/CV 22500→24000; BS +23%
+  accepted as doctrine texture (mechanical range edge vs. pure small
+  fleets).
+- **Round 5 (durations logged; end-condition bug fixed upstream):**
+  TTK anchor validated (mirrors 23/71/95 s; DN-vs-swarm 214 s outlier
+  accepted); dreadnought +3%, everything else inside band. Final
+  changes: BC 2200→2400, repair 12→9 (persistent +24% escort margin).
+  **Combat pass declared converged.**
+
+## 2026-07-05/06 — pacing pass
+
+- Unlock ladder set (starting set drone/frigate/railgun_s/salvager;
+  quartz gate at level 2; capitals at 8–9 with `unlock_requires`
+  chains); threat rate `2*x + 0.15*x*x`; starting blocks 1000→200;
+  expansion 400 flat pending the cost formula; artifacts 3→5.
+- **Bug found:** the building_block recipe was silently locked at game
+  start (building blocks appear in no schematic's materials, so implicit
+  unlocking could never reach the recipe) — fixed with an explicit
+  `unlock_at_station_level = -1`.
+- Expansion cost formula implemented and set (`300 + 50*x + 10*x*x`):
+  quadratic, so costs outrun the roughly linear block income gradually
+  — ~1 expansion per cycle mid-game, 2–3 cycles apart late.
+- **First full balancing round complete.** Next: full-game playtests
+  against the run-shape targets.