first full balancing round

2026-07-08 20:27:25 +02:00
parent 6ea0655eaf
commit c6db4bf24a
8 changed files with 1421 additions and 378 deletions
--- a/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml
@@ -1,26 +1,29 @@
 # modules.toml
 #
-# First real-content iteration: module ids and surface masks are the designed
-# content; stats, materials, and threat costs are placeholders until the
-# recipe and balancing passes.
+# Production tree v2: all weapons are railguns for now — the implementation
+# (instant damage, no projectile, no ammunition) stays as-is and the beam
+# visual reads as a tracer round. Lasers are reserved for a future distinct
+# weapon type (see docs/content_design.md, "Production tree v2 — Weapons").
+# Combat stats are placeholders until the arena balancing pass;
+# production_time_seconds values come from the numbers pass.
 #
 # Unlock progression is mostly disabled (unlock_at_station_level = -1) pending
-# the balancing pass. The laser cannons are the exception: laser_cannon_m is
-# gated to station level 1, and laser_cannon_l requires laser_cannon_m to be
-# unlocked first (unlock_requires) — a demonstration of the prerequisite chain.
+# the pacing pass. The railguns are the exception: railgun_m is gated to
+# station level 1, and railgun_l requires railgun_m to be unlocked first
+# (unlock_requires) — a demonstration of the prerequisite chain.
 #
 # Surface mask footprint ladder — footprints gate which hulls can mount a
 # module, purely through geometry (see ships.toml for the matching hull
 # grids):
 #
-#   1x1       laser_cannon_s, salvager, repair_tool   fits every hull, incl. drones
+#   1x1       railgun_s, salvager, repair_tool        fits every hull, incl. drones
 #   1x2       maneuvering_thrusters, sensor_booster,
 #             armor_plates                            frigate and up
 #   1x3       afterburner                             frigate and up (eats most of a frigate)
 #   L-shape   weapon_stabilizer, weapon_primer,
 #             weapon_upgrade                          frigate and up
-#   2x2       laser_cannon_m, drone_bay               cruiser and up (no 2x2 area on s hulls)
-#   3x3       laser_cannon_l                          battleship and up (no 3x3 area on m hulls)
+#   2x2       railgun_m, drone_bay                    cruiser and up (no 2x2 area on s hulls)
+#   3x3       railgun_l                               battleship and up (no 3x3 area on m hulls)
 #   2x6       drone_hangar                            carrier only

 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -28,13 +31,13 @@
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 [[module]]
-id = "laser_cannon_s"
+id = "railgun_s"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["O"]
-materials = [{item = "laser_cannon_s_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 0.5
+materials = [{item = "railgun_s_module", amount = 1}]
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#FF8040"
-glyph = "Ls"
+glyph = "Rs"

 [module.weapon]
 damage = 2
@@ -43,15 +46,15 @@ attack_rate_hz = 2.0


 [[module]]
-id = "laser_cannon_m"
+id = "railgun_m"
 unlock_at_station_level = 1
 surface_mask = [
    "OO",
    "OO"]
-materials = [{item = "laser_cannon_m_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+materials = [{item = "railgun_m_module", amount = 1}]
+production_time_seconds = 3
 fill_color = "#FF8040"
-glyph = "Lm"
+glyph = "Rm"

 [module.weapon]
 damage = 10
@@ -60,17 +63,17 @@ attack_rate_hz = 1.5


 [[module]]
-id = "laser_cannon_l"
+id = "railgun_l"
 unlock_at_station_level = 1
-unlock_requires = ["laser_cannon_m"]
+unlock_requires = ["railgun_m"]
 surface_mask = [
    "OOO",
    "OOO",
    "OOO"]
-materials = [{item = "laser_cannon_l_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 8
+materials = [{item = "railgun_l_module", amount = 1}]
+production_time_seconds = 4
 fill_color = "#FF8040"
-glyph = "Ll"
+glyph = "Rl"

 [module.weapon]
 damage = 40
@@ -86,7 +89,7 @@ id = "salvager"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["O"]
 materials = [{item = "salvager_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#AACC44"
 glyph = "Sv"

@@ -101,7 +104,7 @@ id = "repair_tool"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["O"]
 materials = [{item = "repair_tool_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#66CCFF"
 glyph = "Rp"

@@ -119,7 +122,7 @@ id = "afterburner"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["OOO"]
 materials = [{item = "afterburner_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#40A0FF"
 glyph = "Ab"

@@ -133,7 +136,7 @@ id = "maneuvering_thrusters"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["OO"]
 materials = [{item = "maneuvering_thrusters_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#40A0FF"
 glyph = "Mt"

@@ -150,7 +153,7 @@ id = "armor_plates"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["OO"]
 materials = [{item = "armor_plates_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 3
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#808080"
 glyph = "A"

@@ -163,7 +166,7 @@ id = "sensor_booster"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 surface_mask = ["OO"]
 materials = [{item = "sensor_booster_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 2
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#40A0FF"
 glyph = "S"

@@ -182,7 +185,7 @@ surface_mask = [
    "OX",
 ]
 materials = [{item = "weapon_upgrade_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 4
+production_time_seconds = 2
 fill_color = "#FF4040"
 glyph = "Wu"

@@ -198,7 +201,7 @@ surface_mask = [
    "OX",
 ]
 materials = [{item = "weapon_primer_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 4
+production_time_seconds = 2
 fill_color = "#FF4040"
 glyph = "Wp"

@@ -214,7 +217,7 @@ surface_mask = [
    "OX",
 ]
 materials = [{item = "weapon_stabilizer_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 4
+production_time_seconds = 1
 fill_color = "#FF4040"
 glyph = "Ws"

@@ -236,7 +239,7 @@ surface_mask = [
    "OO",
    "OO"]
 materials = [{item = "drone_bay_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 5
+production_time_seconds = 3
 fill_color = "#CC66FF"
 glyph = "Db"

@@ -248,6 +251,6 @@ surface_mask = [
    "OOOOOO",
    "OOOOOO"]
 materials = [{item = "drone_hangar_module", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 20
+production_time_seconds = 6
 fill_color = "#9933CC"
 glyph = "Dh"
--- a/bin/app/data/config/recipes.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/recipes.toml
@@ -1,26 +1,26 @@
 # recipes.toml
 #
-# First real-content iteration of the production tree. Quantities and
-# durations are a first guess; the balancing pass will tune them and assign
-# real unlock_at_station_level values. Almost everything is unlocked for now so
-# the full tree is testable; the only gated recipe schematics are the medium and
-# large laser-cannon item recipes, which demonstrate the unlock_requires
-# prerequisite chain (large requires medium — see modules.toml / ships.toml).
+# Production tree v2 (see docs/content_design.md, "Production tree v2" and
+# "Numbers — first pass"). Quantities and durations are tuned so that every
+# fitted ship lands on the threat-cost ladder and the ratio curve is
+# realized: tier 1 ratios are 1:1, tier 2 ratios are 2:3, tier 3+ ratios
+# are deliberately strange.
 #
-# Input chain per game phase — each phase adds exactly one new base input:
+# Input chain per game phase — each phase transition adds exactly one new
+# base input:
 #
-#   early  iron_ore + copper_ore   -> ingots -> copper_wire, steel_plate,
-#                                    circuit_board
-#   mid    + titanium_ore          -> titanium_frame; assembler-made
-#                                    mechanical_parts, targeting_unit,
-#                                    drive_unit
-#   late   + advanced_alloy        -> reinforced_plating, capital_core.
-#                                    advanced_alloy CANNOT be mined; it only
-#                                    comes from reprocessing salvaged scrap,
-#                                    so capital production requires combat.
+#   early  iron_ore + copper_ore    minable on every asteroid tile (the
+#                                   asteroid is an M-type body — its bulk
+#                                   rock IS ore)
+#   mid    + quartz                 geode deposits in expansion territory
+#                                   (deposit gating pending — see action
+#                                   item 5 in docs/progression_design.md;
+#                                   until then quartz mines anywhere)
+#   late   + voidsteel              battle-forged: ONLY from reprocessing
+#                                   salvaged scrap, so capital production
+#                                   requires combat
 #
-# Run tools/verify_recipes.py after editing to check that every consumed
-# item has a producer and every item has a visuals.toml entry.
+# Run tools/verify_recipes.py and tools/threat_report.py after editing.

 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Mining (tier 0)
@@ -38,405 +38,406 @@ id = "mine_copper_ore"
 building = "miner"
 inputs = []
 outputs = [{item = "copper_ore", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 1.5
+duration_seconds = 1.0

-# Titanium is the midgame ore: mined three times slower than iron.
 [[recipe]]
-id = "mine_titanium_ore"
+id = "mine_quartz"
 building = "miner"
 inputs = []
-outputs = [{item = "titanium_ore", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
+outputs = [{item = "quartz", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0

 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Smelting (tier 1)
+# Smelting (tier 1) — one recipe per input item; ratios are 1:1 with miners.
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 [[recipe]]
 id = "iron_ingot"
 building = "smelter"
-inputs = [{item = "iron_ore", amount = 2}]
+inputs = [{item = "iron_ore", amount = 1}]
 outputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 2.0
+duration_seconds = 1.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "copper_ingot"
 building = "smelter"
-inputs = [{item = "copper_ore", amount = 2}]
+inputs = [{item = "copper_ore", amount = 1}]
 outputs = [{item = "copper_ingot", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 2.5
+duration_seconds = 1.0

 [[recipe]]
-id = "titanium_ingot"
+id = "silicon"
 building = "smelter"
-inputs = [{item = "titanium_ore", amount = 3}]
-outputs = [{item = "titanium_ingot", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
+inputs = [{item = "quartz", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "silicon", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+# Scrap smelting: the safe, boring sink. Deliberately value-losing (4 threat
+# of scrap becomes a 2-threat ingot) — reprocessing is the value-preserving
+# path.
+[[recipe]]
+id = "scrap_smelting"
+building = "smelter"
+inputs = [{item = "scrap", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 1.0

 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Reprocessing
-#
-# The only source of advanced_alloy: salvaged scrap from destroyed ships.
+# Reprocessing — the only source of voidsteel (battle-forged; formed when
+# weapon plasma anneals hull metal in the violence of ship destruction).
+# Weights are authored for the fully unlocked pool state; the pool
+# renormalizes over implicitly unlocked items early game.
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 [[recipe]]
 id = "reprocessing_cycle"
 building = "reprocessing_plant"
-inputs = [{item = "scrap", amount = 5}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
+inputs = [{item = "scrap", amount = 4}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0

  [[recipe.outputs]]
  item = "iron_ingot"
-  amount = 2
-  probability = 0.45
+  amount = 1
+  probability = 0.3

  [[recipe.outputs]]
  item = "copper_ingot"
  amount = 1
-  probability = 0.25
+  probability = 0.3

  [[recipe.outputs]]
-  item = "titanium_ingot"
+  item = "silicon"
  amount = 1
-  probability = 0.15
+  probability = 0.2

  [[recipe.outputs]]
-  item = "advanced_alloy"
+  item = "voidsteel"
  amount = 1
-  probability = 0.15
+  probability = 0.2

 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Basic components (tier 2, early game)
+# Tier 2 — early intermediates (clean ratios, ~2:3)
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

-[[recipe]]
-id = "copper_wire"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "copper_ingot", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
-duration_seconds = 1.5
-
 [[recipe]]
 id = "steel_plate"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 2}]
 outputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 3.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "copper_wire"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_ingot", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
+duration_seconds = 1.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "copper_coil"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 1.5
+
+# Depth-3 chain (ore -> ingot -> plate -> block) is the factory's
+# doubling-time knob; see the block economy rules in progression_design.md.
+[[recipe]]
+id = "building_block"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "building_block", amount = 4}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Tier 3 — mid intermediates (strange ratios begin; need quartz)
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "control_chip"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "silicon", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "control_chip", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 5.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "capacitor_bank"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_coil", amount = 2}, {item = "silicon", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "capacitor_bank", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 5.0
+
+# The quality gate for m+ hulls: a deliberately long-running recipe
+# (time-heavy archetype).
+[[recipe]]
+id = "hardened_steel"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 3}]
+outputs = [{item = "hardened_steel", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 12.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "ceramic_plate"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "quartz", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "ceramic_plate", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "drive_unit"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 2},
+    {item = "copper_coil", amount = 2},
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "drive_unit", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 8.0
+
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Tier 4 — late intermediates (need voidsteel)
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "voidsteel_plate"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "voidsteel", amount = 1}, {item = "hardened_steel", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "voidsteel_plate", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 8.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "capital_core"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "voidsteel", amount = 2},
+    {item = "capacitor_bank", amount = 1},
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "capital_core", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 10.0
+
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Shortcut recipes — drop-only assembler recipe schematics
+# (unlock_at_station_level >= 0). Pure rewards: item threat stays defined by
+# the base (expensive) path via the max rule, so shortcuts give real factory
+# efficiency without shifting any balance.
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "shortcut_steel_plate"
+unlock_at_station_level = 1
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "iron_ore", amount = 3}]
+outputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
 duration_seconds = 2.0

 [[recipe]]
-id = "circuit_board"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
+id = "shortcut_control_chip"
+unlock_at_station_level = 2
 building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
-outputs = [{item = "circuit_board", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 2.0
+inputs = [{item = "quartz", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "control_chip", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0

 [[recipe]]
-id = "building_blocks"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
+id = "shortcut_hardened_steel"
+unlock_at_station_level = 2
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 4}]
-outputs = [{item = "building_block", amount = 10}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Advanced components (tier 3, midgame)
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "mechanical_parts"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "iron_ingot", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 2}]
-duration_seconds = 2.5
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "targeting_unit"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "circuit_board", amount = 2}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "drive_unit"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 1},
-    {item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 1},
-    {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1},
-]
-outputs = [{item = "drive_unit", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "titanium_frame"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "titanium_ingot", amount = 2}, {item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "titanium_frame", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Capital components (tier 4, lategame — gated on advanced_alloy)
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "reinforced_plating"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 2}, {item = "advanced_alloy", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 5.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "capital_core"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1},
-    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 1},
-    {item = "advanced_alloy", amount = 2},
-]
-outputs = [{item = "capital_core", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "hardened_steel", amount = 1}]
 duration_seconds = 8.0

-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Module items — early game
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "laser_cannon_s_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 2}, {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "laser_cannon_s_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "salvager_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "salvager_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "repair_tool_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "circuit_board", amount = 2}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "repair_tool_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "armor_plates_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 2}]
-outputs = [{item = "armor_plates_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "sensor_booster_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "circuit_board", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
-outputs = [{item = "sensor_booster_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "maneuvering_thrusters_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "maneuvering_thrusters_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 3.0
-
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Module items — midgame
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "afterburner_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "drive_unit", amount = 1}, {item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "afterburner_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "weapon_upgrade_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1}, {item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "weapon_upgrade_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "weapon_primer_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
-outputs = [{item = "weapon_primer_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "weapon_stabilizer_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1}, {item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "weapon_stabilizer_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "laser_cannon_m_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = 1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1}, {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 1}]
-outputs = [{item = "laser_cannon_m_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 6.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "drone_bay_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 1},
-    {item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 1},
-    {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1},
-]
-outputs = [{item = "drone_bay_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 6.0
-
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# Module items — lategame
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "laser_cannon_l_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = 1
-unlock_requires = ["laser_cannon_m_module"]
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "targeting_unit", amount = 2},
-    {item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 2},
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 1},
-]
-outputs = [{item = "laser_cannon_l_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 12.0
-
-[[recipe]]
-id = "drone_hangar_module"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
-building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "capital_core", amount = 1},
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 2},
-    {item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 2},
-]
-outputs = [{item = "drone_hangar_module", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 20.0
-
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Ship hulls
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 [[recipe]]
 id = "drone_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
-inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 5}, {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1}]
+inputs = [{item = "iron_ingot", amount = 1}]
 outputs = [{item = "drone_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 4.0
+duration_seconds = 1.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "frigate_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 3},
-    {item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 1},
-    {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1},
-]
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 2}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 1}]
 outputs = [{item = "frigate_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 8.0
+duration_seconds = 2.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "destroyer_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 5},
-    {item = "mechanical_parts", amount = 2},
-    {item = "circuit_board", amount = 1},
-]
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 3}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 2}]
 outputs = [{item = "destroyer_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 10.0
+duration_seconds = 4.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "cruiser_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
-inputs = [
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 2},
-    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 4},
-    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 1},
-]
+inputs = [{item = "hardened_steel", amount = 2}, {item = "control_chip", amount = 2}]
 outputs = [{item = "cruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 15.0
+duration_seconds = 6.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "battlecruiser_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 3},
-    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 6},
+    {item = "hardened_steel", amount = 3},
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 2},
    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 1},
-    {item = "targeting_unit", amount = 1},
 ]
 outputs = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 20.0
+duration_seconds = 8.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "battleship_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 4},
-    {item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 2},
-    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 2},
+    {item = "voidsteel_plate", amount = 3},
+    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 1},
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 2},
 ]
 outputs = [{item = "battleship_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 30.0
+duration_seconds = 10.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "dreadnought_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [
+    {item = "voidsteel_plate", amount = 5},
    {item = "capital_core", amount = 1},
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 6},
-    {item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 4},
    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 2},
 ]
 outputs = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 60.0
+duration_seconds = 12.0

 [[recipe]]
 id = "carrier_hull"
-unlock_at_station_level = -1
 building = "assembler"
 inputs = [
+    {item = "voidsteel_plate", amount = 5},
    {item = "capital_core", amount = 1},
-    {item = "titanium_frame", amount = 5},
-    {item = "reinforced_plating", amount = 3},
    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 2},
 ]
 outputs = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
-duration_seconds = 60.0
+duration_seconds = 12.0
+
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Module prefabs
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "railgun_s_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "railgun_s_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 1.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "salvager_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "salvager_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "repair_tool_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}]
+outputs = [{item = "repair_tool_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+# Material-heavy, fast: the armor archetype.
+[[recipe]]
+id = "armor_plates_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 4}]
+outputs = [{item = "armor_plates_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 3.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "maneuvering_thrusters_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "maneuvering_thrusters_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "sensor_booster_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_wire", amount = 2}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "sensor_booster_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "afterburner_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "copper_coil", amount = 2}, {item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "afterburner_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 3.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "weapon_stabilizer_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "steel_plate", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "weapon_stabilizer_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 2.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "weapon_primer_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "capacitor_bank", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "weapon_primer_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "weapon_upgrade_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [{item = "control_chip", amount = 1}, {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1}]
+outputs = [{item = "weapon_upgrade_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "railgun_m_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "capacitor_bank", amount = 1},
+    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 2},
+    {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "railgun_m_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "drone_bay_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 1},
+    {item = "steel_plate", amount = 2},
+    {item = "copper_coil", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "drone_bay_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 4.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "railgun_l_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "capacitor_bank", amount = 1},
+    {item = "hardened_steel", amount = 2},
+    {item = "ceramic_plate", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "railgun_l_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 6.0
+
+[[recipe]]
+id = "drone_hangar_module"
+building = "assembler"
+inputs = [
+    {item = "voidsteel_plate", amount = 1},
+    {item = "control_chip", amount = 2},
+    {item = "drive_unit", amount = 1},
+]
+outputs = [{item = "drone_hangar_module", amount = 1}]
+duration_seconds = 10.0
--- a/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml
@@ -24,11 +24,11 @@
 id = "drone"
 unlock_at_station_level = -1
 layout = ["O"]
-default_modules = [{type = "laser_cannon_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"}]
+default_modules = [{type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"}]

 [ship.schematic]
-materials = [{item = "iron_ore", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 5
+materials = [{item = "drone_hull", amount = 1}]
+production_time_seconds = 1

 [ship.health]
 hp = 3
@@ -55,10 +55,15 @@ layout = [
    "OOO",
    "XOX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "frigate_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 10
+production_time_seconds = 2

 [ship.health]
 hp = 30
@@ -84,10 +89,17 @@ layout = [
    "OXOXO",
    "OOOOO",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "destroyer_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 15
+production_time_seconds = 3

 [ship.health]
 hp = 50
@@ -115,10 +127,16 @@ layout = [
    "OOOO",
    "XOOX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "cruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 25
+production_time_seconds = 4

 [ship.health]
 hp = 120
@@ -147,10 +165,18 @@ layout = [
    "XOOOOX",
    "XXOOXX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 2, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 35
+production_time_seconds = 5

 [ship.health]
 hp = 180
@@ -182,10 +208,18 @@ layout = [
    "OOOOOO",
    "XOOOOX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_l", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "weapon_stabilizer", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "battleship_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 60
+production_time_seconds = 6

 [ship.health]
 hp = 350
@@ -217,10 +251,20 @@ layout = [
    "OOOXOOOXOOO",
    "XXOOXXXOOXX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "railgun_l", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_l", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_l", x = 8, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 3, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 5, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 2, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 7, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_s", x = 7, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 120
+production_time_seconds = 8

 [ship.health]
 hp = 800
@@ -250,10 +294,18 @@ layout = [
    "XOOOOOOOOX",
    "XXXOOOOXXX",
 ]
+default_modules = [
+    {type = "drone_hangar", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "railgun_m", x = 6, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "armor_plates", x = 8, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+]

 [ship.schematic]
 materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
-production_time_seconds = 120
+production_time_seconds = 8

 [ship.health]
 hp = 700
--- a/bin/app/data/config/visuals.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/visuals.toml
@@ -116,11 +116,11 @@ outline = "#201010"
 fill    = "#c47a3a"
 outline = "#3a1a0a"

-[items.titanium_ore]
-fill    = "#9aa3ad"
-outline = "#2a2e33"
+[items.quartz]
+fill    = "#e0d4f0"
+outline = "#40345a"

-# --- ingots ---
+# --- smelted basics ---

 [items.iron_ingot]
 fill    = "#b0b0b8"
@@ -130,9 +130,9 @@ outline = "#202028"
 fill    = "#d48a4a"
 outline = "#402010"

-[items.titanium_ingot]
-fill    = "#c8d2dc"
-outline = "#3a4048"
+[items.silicon]
+fill    = "#33415e"
+outline = "#0e1420"

 # --- salvage loop ---

@@ -140,9 +140,9 @@ outline = "#3a4048"
 fill    = "#7a7268"
 outline = "#201a14"

-[items.advanced_alloy]
-fill    = "#a06acc"
-outline = "#201030"
+[items.voidsteel]
+fill    = "#4a3a6a"
+outline = "#151020"

 # --- basic components ---

@@ -154,9 +154,9 @@ outline = "#3a2008"
 fill    = "#8a92a0"
 outline = "#22262c"

-[items.circuit_board]
-fill    = "#2ea35a"
-outline = "#0a2a14"
+[items.copper_coil]
+fill    = "#d07030"
+outline = "#381808"

 [items.building_block]
 fill    = "#c8b070"
@@ -164,26 +164,30 @@ outline = "#302810"

 # --- advanced components ---

-[items.mechanical_parts]
-fill    = "#6f7a66"
-outline = "#1c2018"
+[items.control_chip]
+fill    = "#2ea35a"
+outline = "#0a2a14"

-[items.targeting_unit]
-fill    = "#3a9e8c"
-outline = "#0c2824"
+[items.capacitor_bank]
+fill    = "#d0a030"
+outline = "#302408"
+
+[items.hardened_steel]
+fill    = "#6a7280"
+outline = "#181c22"
+
+[items.ceramic_plate]
+fill    = "#e0d8c8"
+outline = "#3a3428"

 [items.drive_unit]
 fill    = "#4a6ad0"
 outline = "#101a38"

-[items.titanium_frame]
-fill    = "#b8c4d4"
-outline = "#343c48"
-
 # --- capital components ---

-[items.reinforced_plating]
-fill    = "#8a6ad0"
+[items.voidsteel_plate]
+fill    = "#7a5aaa"
 outline = "#1c1038"

 [items.capital_core]
@@ -192,15 +196,15 @@ outline = "#280c30"

 # --- module items ---

-[items.laser_cannon_s_module]
+[items.railgun_s_module]
 fill    = "#691313"
 outline = "#f3ff4f"

-[items.laser_cannon_m_module]
+[items.railgun_m_module]
 fill    = "#892020"
 outline = "#f3ff4f"

-[items.laser_cannon_l_module]
+[items.railgun_l_module]
 fill    = "#a92d2d"
 outline = "#f3ff4f"

--- a/bin/app/data/config/world.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/world.toml
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ height_tiles = 40
 refund_percentage = 100
 starting_building_blocks = 1000
 scrap_despawn_seconds = 30
-scrap_per_threat = 0.01
+scrap_per_threat = 0.25
 tile_size_m = 10
 belt_speed_mps = 20
 tunnel_max_distance_tiles = 10
--- a/docs/content_design.md
+++ b/docs/content_design.md
@@ -129,7 +129,12 @@ Maximum simultaneous (disjoint) placements: m guns — cruiser 2,
 battlecruiser 3, battleship 4; l guns — battleship 1, dreadnought 3;
 drone hangar — carrier 1.

-## Production tree
+## Production tree (first pass — superseded)
+
+**Superseded (July 2026):** this first-pass tree predates the rules in
+`docs/progression_design.md` and will be replaced. The decisions for the
+redesign are recorded in "Production tree v2 — decisions" below; the text
+of this section is kept for reference until the new tree lands.

 Design principle: each game phase adds exactly one new base input chain, so
 factory complexity ramps alongside ship size.
@@ -171,6 +176,319 @@ It verifies every consumed item has a producer, every item has a visuals
 entry, flags orphaned items, and prints which items are reprocessing-only
 (currently exactly advanced_alloy).

+## Production tree v2 — decisions (July 2026)
+
+The old tree is discarded; the new one is designed against the rules in
+`docs/progression_design.md` (ratio curve, cost ladder, cost archetypes,
+refactorability). Decisions fixed so far:
+
+### Base inputs (4) and fiction
+
+- **iron_ore, copper_ore** — from the start, minable on every asteroid
+  tile. Fiction: the asteroid is an M-type (metal) body — its bulk rock
+  *is* ore, which is why the shipyard operation was built here at all.
+- **quartz** — mid-game, minable only on geode deposit patches in
+  expansion territory (see the Resource deposits rules in
+  `progression_design.md`). Fiction: ordinary silicate dust is everywhere
+  and worthless; chips and optics need rare, pocket-bound optical-grade
+  crystal.
+- **voidsteel** — late-game, obtained only by reprocessing scrap.
+  Fiction: battle-forged — formed when weapon plasma anneals hull metal
+  in the violence of ship destruction. Any wreck yields it, including the
+  player's own; no foundry can replicate it.
+- **titanium is dropped.** Its hull-gating role moves to quartz-era
+  control systems ("you can smelt all the steel you want, but you cannot
+  steer a battlecruiser without electronics") and possibly a *quality*
+  steel step — e.g. a long-running hardened-steel recipe (time-heavy
+  archetype). Open question for the tree draft: quality step vs.
+  electronics-only gating; explicitly **not** sheer steel quantity alone.
+
+### Material palette (fingerprints per family)
+
+- **iron/steel** — structure.
+- **copper** — conduction and heat: wiring, coils, heat sinks.
+- **silicon family** (all derived from quartz): silicon (logic,
+  sensors), glass/optics (lenses, focusing crystals), ceramics (heat
+  shielding, insulators). Carries the non-metal variety without extra
+  base inputs.
+- **voidsteel** — capital-tier structure and exotics.
+- Deliberately skipped: carbon (mostly redundant with copper/ceramics),
+  plastics (drags in Factorio-style chemical chains; ceramics read more
+  sci-fi anyway), volatiles/ice (materials are build costs only — no
+  consumption mechanic to justify fuel).
+
+### Weapons
+
+- All current lasers are renamed to **railguns** (`laser_cannon_s/m/l` →
+  `railgun_s/m/l`); footprints and the gating matrix are unchanged.
+  Implementation stays as-is (instant damage application, no projectile,
+  no ammunition) — the beam visual reads as a tracer round. Materials:
+  iron slugs, copper coils, steel rails — the starting-metal fingerprint.
+- **Lasers are reserved for later** as a genuinely distinct weapon type
+  (e.g. once projectile/ammunition mechanics exist for other families),
+  arriving with quartz optics. More weapon types are planned; railguns
+  are simply the baseline tech that ships with v1.
+
+### Tree structure — draft
+
+Recipes are sketched as input lists only; quantities and durations come
+in the numbers pass, tuned so every chain sums to its threat-ladder
+value and follows the ratio curve (t1 nice → t4 strange). Glass/optics
+are cut from v1 — their only consumers would be lasers, which are
+deferred; the silicon family ships as silicon + ceramics.
+
+**Mined (miner):** `iron_ore`, `copper_ore` (every tile), `quartz`
+(geode deposits in expansion territory).
+
+**Smelted (smelter — exactly one recipe per input item):**
+
+| output | input | ratio class |
+|---|---|---|
+| iron_ingot | iron_ore | nice (1:1 or 1:2) |
+| copper_ingot | copper_ore | nice |
+| silicon | quartz | mid entry |
+| iron_ingot | scrap | the safe, boring scrap sink |
+
+**Reprocessing pool (scrap):** `iron_ingot`, `copper_ingot`, `silicon`,
+`voidsteel` — the only source of voidsteel. Weights authored for the
+fully unlocked pool state.
+
+**Tier 2 — early intermediates (clean ratios, ~2:3):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| steel_plate | iron_ingot | structure backbone, highest volume |
+| copper_wire | copper_ingot | conductors |
+| copper_coil | copper_wire | electromagnets: railguns, thrusters |
+| building_block | steel_plate | depth-3 chain = the doubling-time knob |
+
+**Tier 3 — mid intermediates (strange ratios begin, need quartz):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| control_chip | silicon + copper_wire | electronics gate for m+ hulls |
+| capacitor_bank | copper_coil + silicon | power for railgun m/l |
+| hardened_steel | steel_plate (long cycle) | quality gate for m+ hulls; time-heavy |
+| ceramic_plate | quartz | heat shielding: drives, l guns, capitals |
+| drive_unit | steel_plate + copper_coil + control_chip | propulsion for m+ hulls |
+
+**Tier 4 — late intermediates (need voidsteel):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| voidsteel_plate | voidsteel + hardened_steel | capital structure |
+| capital_core | voidsteel + capacitor_bank + control_chip | capital heart |
+
+**Hull items** (`<ship>_hull`, assembler-made; the shipyard consumes the
+hull item plus module materials). The m+ hull gate is resolved as
+**both** of the open-question options: hardened_steel (quality steel, a
+deliberately long-running recipe — the time-heavy step) *and*
+control_chip (electronics):
+
+| hull | inputs |
+|---|---|
+| drone_hull | steel_plate |
+| frigate_hull | steel_plate + copper_wire |
+| destroyer_hull | steel_plate + copper_coil |
+| cruiser_hull | hardened_steel + control_chip |
+| battlecruiser_hull | hardened_steel + control_chip + drive_unit |
+| battleship_hull | voidsteel_plate + drive_unit + control_chip |
+| dreadnought_hull | voidsteel_plate + capital_core + drive_unit |
+| carrier_hull | voidsteel_plate + capital_core + drive_unit |
+
+**Module items** (`<module>_module`, assembler-made prefabs — kept as
+items so shipyard belt inputs stay simple and module production can be
+stockpiled):
+
+| module | inputs | archetype |
+|---|---|---|
+| railgun_s | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| salvager | steel_plate + copper_wire | balanced |
+| repair_tool | steel_plate + copper_wire | balanced |
+| armor_plates | steel_plate (many) | material-heavy, fast |
+| maneuvering_thrusters | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| sensor_booster | copper_wire + copper_coil | lean (an antenna, no chip) |
+| afterburner | copper_coil + steel_plate | balanced |
+| weapon_stabilizer | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| weapon_primer | capacitor_bank + copper_coil | mid; time-heavy |
+| weapon_upgrade | control_chip + copper_coil | mid; time-heavy |
+| railgun_m | capacitor_bank + steel_plate + copper_coil | mid |
+| drone_bay | control_chip + steel_plate + copper_coil | mid |
+| railgun_l | capacitor_bank + hardened_steel + ceramic_plate | late |
+| drone_hangar | voidsteel_plate + control_chip + drive_unit | late (carrier only) |
+
+Refactorability check (the default technique holds): railgun_s → m
+introduces capacitor_bank, built from a subset of the small gun's
+inputs (copper_coil) plus the new base resource (silicon); the m gun
+otherwise reuses the small gun's inputs. Hulls likewise: cruiser adds
+hardening (fed by the existing steel line) and chips (fed by the new
+quartz territory) without touching the iron/copper core.
+
+**Shortcut recipe candidates** (drop-only assembler schematics; not
+every strange chain gets one):
+
+- `iron_ore → steel_plate` — skips the ingot step on the highest-volume
+  chain in the game.
+- `quartz → control_chip` — skips silicon on the electronics chain.
+- `iron_ingot → hardened_steel` — a nicer-ratio route past the
+  deliberately awkward hardening step.
+
+Item count: 3 mined + scrap + 3 smelted + 4 t2 + 5 t3 + 3 t4 (incl.
+voidsteel) + 8 hulls + 14 modules ≈ 41 item types — same scale as the
+first-pass tree. `verify_recipes.py` must be re-run once this lands in
+recipes.toml; the numbers pass should add a threat-report tool that
+prints per-item threat values and producer:consumer ratio tables.
+
+### Numbers — first pass
+
+These numbers are live in the config files and verified by
+`tools/threat_report.py`; quantities and durations are tuned so fitted
+ships land on the threat-cost ladder and the ratio curve is realized.
+The typical loadouts are geometry-validated against the hull grids and
+configured as each ship's `default_modules`: the L-shaped weapon
+modifiers turned out not to fit alongside the full gun complement on
+the battlecruiser and dreadnought, so their loadouts use armor and
+small-railgun fillers instead — which moved all three heavy ships
+closer to their ladder targets.
+
+**Economy constants:** `scrap_per_threat = 0.25` (1 scrap per 4 threat
+destroyed — a cruiser kill drops ~59 scrap). Reprocessing: 4 scrap per
+cycle, 4 s, full-pool weights iron_ingot 30 / copper_ingot 30 /
+silicon 20 / voidsteel 20 → threat(voidsteel) = (4·4 + 4)/0.2 = 100.
+Scrap smelting: 1 scrap → 1 iron_ingot, 1 s — deliberately
+value-losing (4 threat of scrap becomes a 2-threat ingot); reprocessing
+is the value-preserving path.
+
+**Recipes** (dur in seconds; threat is per output item):
+
+| item | recipe | dur | out | threat |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| iron_ore / copper_ore | miner | 1 | 1 | 1 |
+| quartz | miner (deposit) | 2 | 1 | 2 |
+| iron_ingot | 1 iron_ore | 1 | 1 | 2 |
+| copper_ingot | 1 copper_ore | 1 | 1 | 2 |
+| silicon | 1 quartz | 2 | 1 | 4 |
+| steel_plate | 2 iron_ingot | 3 | 1 | 7 |
+| copper_wire | 1 copper_ingot | 1 | 2 | 1.5 |
+| copper_coil | 2 copper_wire | 1.5 | 1 | 4.5 |
+| building_block | 2 steel_plate | 2 | 4 | 4 |
+| control_chip | 1 silicon + 2 copper_wire | 5 | 1 | 12 |
+| capacitor_bank | 2 copper_coil + 1 silicon | 5 | 1 | 18 |
+| hardened_steel | 3 steel_plate | 12 | 1 | 33 |
+| ceramic_plate | 2 quartz | 4 | 1 | 8 |
+| drive_unit | 2 steel_plate + 2 copper_coil + 1 control_chip | 8 | 1 | 43 |
+| voidsteel_plate | 1 voidsteel + 1 hardened_steel | 8 | 1 | 141 |
+| capital_core | 2 voidsteel + 1 capacitor_bank + 1 control_chip | 10 | 1 | 240 |
+
+**Module prefabs** (contribution = item threat + module production
+time):
+
+| module | recipe | dur | mod. time | contribution |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| railgun_s | 1 copper_coil | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
+| salvager | 1 steel_plate + 2 copper_wire | 2 | 1 | 13 |
+| repair_tool | 1 steel_plate + 2 copper_wire | 2 | 1 | 13 |
+| armor_plates | 4 steel_plate | 3 | 1 | 32 |
+| maneuvering_thrusters | 1 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 14.5 |
+| sensor_booster | 2 copper_wire + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 10.5 |
+| afterburner | 2 copper_coil + 1 steel_plate | 3 | 1 | 20 |
+| weapon_stabilizer | 1 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 14.5 |
+| weapon_primer | 1 capacitor_bank + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 2 | 28.5 |
+| weapon_upgrade | 1 control_chip + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 2 | 22.5 |
+| railgun_m | 1 capacitor_bank + 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 43.5 |
+| drone_bay | 1 control_chip + 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 37.5 |
+| railgun_l | 1 capacitor_bank + 2 hardened_steel + 1 ceramic_plate | 6 | 4 | 102 |
+| drone_hangar | 1 voidsteel_plate + 2 control_chip + 1 drive_unit | 10 | 6 | 224 |
+
+**Ships** (fitted = hull item + ship base time + typical loadout; the
+typical loadouts double as the `default_modules` for enemy waves):
+
+| ship | hull recipe | dur | base | typical loadout | fitted (target) |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| drone | 1 iron_ingot | 1 | 1 | railgun_s | 10 (10) |
+| frigate | 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_wire | 2 | 2 | 2× railgun_s, maneuvering_thrusters | 47 (40) |
+| destroyer | 3 steel_plate + 2 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 3× railgun_s, armor_plates, sensor_booster | 99 (80) |
+| cruiser | 2 hardened_steel + 2 control_chip | 6 | 4 | 2× railgun_m, armor_plates, maneuvering_thrusters | 234 (200) |
+| battlecruiser | 3 hardened_steel + 2 control_chip + 1 drive_unit | 8 | 5 | 3× railgun_m, armor_plates, 2× railgun_s | 355 (350) |
+| battleship | 3 voidsteel_plate + 1 drive_unit + 2 control_chip | 10 | 6 | railgun_l, 2× railgun_m, weapon_stabilizer, 2× railgun_s | 723 (700) |
+| dreadnought | 5 voidsteel_plate + 1 capital_core + 2 drive_unit | 12 | 8 | 3× railgun_l, 4× armor_plates, railgun_s | 1492 (1500) |
+| carrier | 5 voidsteel_plate + 1 capital_core + 2 drive_unit | 12 | 8 | drone_hangar, 2× railgun_m, 2× armor_plates, sensor_booster | 1436 (1500) |
+
+**Checks:**
+
+- *Ratio curve realized:* t1 all 1:1 (miner:smelter); t2 clean 2:3
+  (ingot→plate, wire→coil); t3 strange — 2:5 (silicon→chip), 3:5
+  (coil→capacitor), 3:4 (plate→hardened, plate→drive); t4 inverted 3:2
+  (hardened→voidsteel_plate).
+- *Belt feasibility:* worst input demand is 1.33 items/s (wire→coil,
+  plate→armor) — under the ~2/s single-belt cap everywhere; no
+  accidental multi-belt recipes.
+- *Block economy:* building_block = 4 threat ⇒ for the 4-minute
+  doubling at 30% capacity, the average building must cost ≈ 18 blocks
+  (0.3 × 240 / 4). buildings.toml costs should be set around that mean
+  (belts cheap, producers ~20–30).
+- *Small-end deviation:* frigate–cruiser land 6–24% hot because the
+  fixed chain overhead dominates small hulls. Recommendation: accept
+  and adjust the ladder targets to the achieved values (the ~×2-per-
+  class curve shape is preserved) rather than thinning the early
+  chains below readability.
+- *Rule bug discovered:* the scrap→iron_ingot smelter recipe combined
+  with REQ-THREAT-ITEM's max-across-recipes rule would set
+  threat(iron_ingot) to the scrap path (1 + 4 = 5, or more at other
+  scrap values) instead of 2, inflating every downstream item. Fix:
+  scrap-consuming recipes count toward an item's threat only when no
+  scrap-free recipe produces that item, mirroring the reprocessing-path
+  rule (see progression_design.md action items).
+
+## Balancing targets (first pass, July 2026)
+
+The six root numbers for the balancing pass. Every derived value (threat
+rate, recipe quantities, block costs, scrap rates, unlock ladder) is tuned
+to hit these; when rebalancing later, change these first and re-derive,
+never the other way around. The rules they follow live in
+`docs/progression_design.md`.
+
+All targets are in **game time**. The player can pause and accelerate, so
+real session length differs; playtests should measure both. The time unit
+is the boss cycle (`world.toml boss_countdown_seconds`, 300 s). Destroying
+a station set advances the boss countdown by `boss_advance_seconds`
+(60 s), so cycles run shorter than nominal when pushing actively — these
+targets deliberately ignore that; playtesting will show real run lengths.
+
+1. **Run length** — a winning run takes up to 2 hours of game time: win
+   around boss cycle 20–24. Losing runs end earlier.
+2. **Phase boundaries** — early = cycles 1–5 (iron/copper, small hulls),
+   mid = cycles 6–14 (quartz, medium hulls), late = cycles 15+
+   (voidsteel, capitals). Push cadence roughly one station set per
+   cycle from mid onward. This fixes the `unlock_at_station_level`
+   ladder and, with the artifact win count, the `artifact_chance_formula`
+   pacing.
+3. **Factory size curve** — producing buildings over time; when
+   saturated, output threat/s equals this count, so this curve IS the
+   player power curve. Targets: ~25 when the starting asteroid is full
+   (end of cycle 2), ~60 at the start of mid (cycle 6), ~120 at the
+   start of late (cycle 15), ~150 near the win. `threat_rate_formula`
+   must remain a fraction of this curve, and buildings plus belts must
+   physically fit the asteroid plus affordable expansions.
+4. **Threat-cost ladder** — total production-seconds per *fitted* hull
+   (including a typical module loadout): drone ~10, frigate ~40,
+   destroyer ~80, cruiser ~200, battlecruiser ~350, battleship ~700,
+   dreadnought/carrier ~1500. Every production chain must sum to its
+   ladder value. Cross-check against (3): fitted-ship cadence =
+   ladder value / (factory threat/s devoted to military) — e.g. a mid
+   factory spending half of 60 threat/s on ships fields a fitted
+   cruiser roughly every 7 s.
+5. **Fleet size** — swarm-leaning: ~25 player combat ships as the
+   standing mid-game fleet. Standing fleet = build cadence (4) × average
+   ship lifetime, so this target drives time-to-kill and therefore the
+   combat stat magnitudes tuned in the arena pass.
+6. **Block economy roots** — bootstrap complete (starting asteroid full)
+   by the end of cycle 2; a factory spending ~30% of its capacity on
+   blocks doubles in ~4 minutes early game; one expansion affordable per
+   cycle at ~1/3 of block income, with escalating costs that eventually
+   outrun any income (see the growth curve rules in
+   `progression_design.md`).
+
 ## Deliberate placeholders / open questions for later passes

 - All new hulls have `threat.cost_formula = "0"` so enemy waves do not spawn
--- a/docs/progression_design.md
+++ b/docs/progression_design.md
@@ -0,0 +1,403 @@
+# Progression & Balancing Design
+
+Rules and principles that govern the production tree, progression pacing,
+and balancing. This document contains **rules only** — concrete content
+(item lists, recipes, unlock levels, stat numbers) lives in the config files
+and `content_design.md`; those numbers must follow the rules stated here.
+
+## Player-experience goals
+
+What each phase of a run should feel like:
+
+- **Early:** learning belts and ratios with forgiving chains. The building
+  block economy is the main constraint; the player bootstraps a
+  self-sustaining factory from the starting stock.
+- **Mid:** deeper chains, the first real ratio puzzles, and the first
+  meaningful drop decisions (which schematic, when to push).
+- **Late:** combat feeds the factory — capital production requires salvage.
+  Progress means extending and refactoring the existing factory, not
+  rebuilding it. Strange ratios are deliberate optimization puzzles.
+
+Overarching: an experienced player gains efficiency through **knowledge** —
+layout foresight, understanding chains, exploiting shortcut recipes — never
+through hidden mechanics. An inexperienced setup should not cost much more
+than an experienced one; experience pays off in how easily the factory
+adapts later (see Refactorability).
+
+## Resource phases
+
+- A run has exactly **four base inputs**:
+  1. Two mined resources available from the start, minable on **every**
+     asteroid tile.
+  2. A third mined resource unlocked mid-game, minable **only on deposit
+     patches** found in expansion territory (see Resource deposits).
+  3. A fourth input unlocked late-game, obtainable **only** from
+     reprocessing salvaged scrap.
+- The fourth input is the core loop hook: capital ship production requires
+  fighting (salvaging and reprocessing), not just mining.
+- Every gating has a fictional reason (concrete fiction in
+  `content_design.md`): the asteroid is a metal-rich body, so its bulk
+  rock is minable anywhere; the mid resource sits in rare pockets; the
+  late input is battle-forged — created only in the violence of ship
+  destruction, which is why any wreck (including the player's own)
+  yields it and no foundry can make it.
+- The mid resource is **dual-gated**: schematics (knowledge, via drops)
+  and territory (deposits, via expansions). Tuning must guarantee the
+  deposit-bearing expansion is comfortably affordable by the time the
+  first mid-tier schematics drop, or those drops are dead picks.
+- There is no direct "resource unlock" mechanism. Miner recipes unlock
+  **implicitly** (REQ-LOCK-IMPLICIT) when some unlocked schematic's material
+  chain reaches that resource. Resource pacing is therefore controlled
+  through the `unlock_at_station_level` values of ships, modules, and
+  assembler recipe schematics — and the content must guarantee that the
+  chains actually connect (a mid-game schematic must require an item whose
+  chain reaches the mid resource, or it never unlocks).
+
+### Resource deposits
+
+- **Rule: freedom first, geography later.** The starting resources are
+  minable everywhere, so the player has full layout freedom while
+  learning. Later mined resources are bound to deposit patches — fixed
+  geography as a layout puzzle, introduced once the player is competent.
+- **Rule: deposits exist only in expansion territory.** Expansions buy
+  space *and* access to resource tiers — the second leg of the growth
+  curve (see Building block economy).
+- **Rule: patch area is the throughput cap.** Deposits never deplete but
+  are finite in area; the number of deposit tiles caps how many miners
+  the chain supports. Buying deeper expansions raises the throughput
+  ceiling of high-tier chains.
+- **Rule: no empty expansions.** Deposit content per expansion is
+  deterministic and config-defined; only the placement within the new
+  columns is randomized. Buying an expansion never rolls "nothing".
+- **Rule: mining is binary.** A miner whose footprint overlaps at least
+  one deposit tile of a resource can select that resource's recipe; no
+  partial-coverage rate scaling.
+- Deposits arrive at the periphery (expansions add columns on the left),
+  so each new chain starts in fresh space — supporting the
+  refactorability property — and high-tier chains have the longest belt
+  runs to the shipyards, escalating the logistics puzzle with tier.
+
+## Production tree rules
+
+### Structure
+
+- **Each phase transition adds exactly one new base input chain.** A base
+  input is a bottom-level resource entering the factory from outside — a
+  mined resource or the scrap-only input. The early game starts with two
+  ores as the baseline; the transition to mid adds one (the deposit-bound
+  mid resource), the transition to late adds one (the scrap-only input).
+  No transition ever introduces more than one unfamiliar bottom-level
+  chain, so the factory grows in one direction at a time.
+- **Intermediates are generic shared parts.** Keep the item count low —
+  modules and hulls of a tier draw from a shared pool of that tier's and
+  lower tiers' intermediates rather than each having bespoke inputs.
+- **Thematic naming over thematic items.** Inputs should be plausible for
+  what the recipe produces (crystals for lasers, heat sinks for bigger
+  lasers). Achieve this through naming and chain membership, not by adding
+  item types: rename a generic part, don't add a parallel one.
+
+### Ratios
+
+- **Ratio "niceness" degrades with tier.** The producer:consumer ratios
+  needed for 100% throughput follow a curve:
+  - Tier 1 (ore → basic material): trivially nice (e.g. 1:1 or 1:2
+    miner:smelter).
+  - Tier 2: slightly complex but still clean (e.g. 2:3).
+  - Higher tiers: increasingly strange ratios, as deliberate optimization
+    puzzles.
+- Exceptions in both directions are allowed when there is a reason — a
+  clean late chain as a breather, an odd early chain as a teaser — but the
+  curve is the default.
+
+### Shortcut recipes
+
+- Some strange chains get a **shortcut recipe**: an explicitly unlockable
+  assembler recipe schematic (`unlock_at_station_level ≥ 0`, drop-only per
+  REQ-LOCK-EXPLICIT) that skips a step (e.g. t1 → t3 directly) and yields
+  nice ratios for a chain whose base path is strange.
+- **Not every strange chain gets a shortcut.** Some strangeness is
+  permanent; the absence of a fix is a valid design choice.
+- **Shortcuts drop only for known chains.** A shortcut recipe enters the
+  drop pool only when both its input items and its output item are
+  already unlocked (in addition to the station level check). The player
+  is never offered a shortcut for a chain they have not built yet. The
+  output-item half of this check already exists in
+  REQ-DEF-SCHEMATIC-DROP; the input half is new (see Action items).
+- **Shortcuts are pure rewards, never balance factors.** An item's threat
+  value is the *maximum* across its producing recipes (REQ-THREAT-ITEM), so
+  unlocking a cheaper recipe does not lower the item's threat accounting —
+  the player gains real factory efficiency without their ships being
+  valued cheaper and without enemy wave budgets shifting. Consequently:
+  **balance every chain around its base (expensive) path**; the shortcut's
+  savings define the size of the reward.
+
+### Refactorability
+
+- **Rule (the property):** unlocking the next tier or size of a thing must
+  be a *local edit* of the existing production line — adding assemblers
+  and belts, or replacing a machine or two in place — never a rebuild of
+  the line.
+- **What this buys the player:** foresight pays off in space, not blocks.
+  An experienced player leaves a little slack in the middle of a line,
+  knowing the next size or tier upgrade means tearing out one assembler
+  and a few belts there and inserting the new step — plus maybe swapping
+  a recipe or two elsewhere — while the rest of the line keeps running
+  untouched.
+- **Default technique:** the bigger version introduces one new intermediate
+  that is produced from a subset of the smaller version's inputs (possibly
+  plus one additional low-tier material), and otherwise reuses the smaller
+  version's inputs. Existing lines keep running and feed the new
+  intermediate's assemblers.
+- The property is the rule; the technique is only the default. It may be
+  broken where it fights thematic plausibility, as long as the property
+  still holds.
+
+## Cost archetypes
+
+Every item has two cost knobs: **material quantity** and **cycle time**.
+Both feed the threat value identically (threat = recursive
+production-seconds, REQ-MOD-THREAT), so the split between them does not
+change what an item is *worth* — it changes what kind of **factory
+pressure** it creates:
+
+- **Material-heavy, fast** (e.g. armor plates): simple items; stress belt
+  throughput, splitter logistics, and miner/smelter counts.
+- **Time-heavy, lean** (e.g. shield modules): technically complex items;
+  few inputs — possibly higher-tier ones — but long cycles; stress
+  assembler counts and parallelization.
+
+**Rule:** each module family commits to a clear archetype, so factories
+supporting different fleet doctrines feel structurally different to build.
+
+## Threat model (balancing backbone)
+
+- Threat cost = total recursive production-seconds (REQ-MOD-THREAT). One
+  factory-second equals one threat; player output and enemy wave budgets
+  are denominated in the same currency.
+- **Rule: combat power per threat is roughly constant** across all ships,
+  modules, and tiers. Higher tiers are better per *ship* and per *module
+  slot*, not per invested factory-second — their advantage is
+  concentration (fewer, bigger things; slot geometry per
+  `content_design.md`) and qualitative capabilities, not a better exchange
+  rate. Deviations from this rule are deliberate and documented.
+- **Difficulty race:** the enemy threat rate (`threat_rate_formula`) is
+  tuned against the factory output (threat/s) achievable by a competent
+  player — slightly below it early, crossing above it eventually. The game
+  is endless; enemy scaling must ultimately outpace any factory, and
+  player skill shifts *when*, not *whether*.
+- **All time scaling lives in the threat rate** — waves get bigger, ships
+  of a given schematic never get individually stronger. There is no ship
+  level dimension: stat formulas are plain values, and per-ship level
+  scaling does not exist. Push
+  scaling on enemy defence stations is the separate, player-triggered
+  difficulty axis and keeps its level formulas.
+
+## Unlock & drop pacing
+
+- **Starting set rule:** the schematics unlocked at game start
+  (`unlock_at_station_level = -1`) must be exactly enough to reach the
+  first push unaided — a functioning block loop, small hulls, a basic
+  weapon, and the salvage loop. Nothing more.
+- The `unlock_at_station_level` ladder mirrors the resource phases:
+  mid-tier hulls/modules/recipes at low station levels, capital content at
+  higher levels. A schematic must not become available before the chains
+  its materials need can be unlocked alongside it.
+- **Schematics can require other schematics.** Beyond the station-level
+  gate, a schematic (ship, module, or assembler recipe) may list
+  prerequisite schematics (`unlock_requires`, REQ-LOCK-PREREQ) that must
+  already be unlocked before it enters the drop pool — e.g. the medium
+  laser requires the small laser; a future Mk2 requires its base version.
+  Station level gates the earliest
+  *when*; prerequisites gate the *order*, keeping drop offers coherent
+  with what the player already owns.
+- **No duplicate drops.** Ship and module schematics leave the drop pool
+  once owned, exactly as assembler recipe schematics already do. There are
+  no schematic level-ups; player power grows through unlock breadth and
+  factory scale only, which keeps power-per-threat exact on both sides.
+  The pool therefore shrinks over a run and late pushes increasingly offer
+  artifacts — intended: the late game is a race for the win condition.
+  Per-item progression may return later as Mk2 upgrade recipes (see Open
+  tasks), never as free level-ups.
+- **Artifacts trade power for progress.** Artifact options compete with
+  schematic picks in the same choice dialog; the artifact chance must be
+  tuned so that taking one is a real decision (giving up an unlock), not
+  automatic in either direction.
+
+## Scrap & reprocessing economy
+
+- Scrap is the bridge from combat back into the factory, with two sinks:
+  **smelting** (same basic materials as ore — the safe, boring option) and
+  **reprocessing** (probabilistic higher intermediates, including the
+  late-game input — the gamble that eventually becomes mandatory).
+- The reprocessing output pool renormalizes over implicitly unlocked items
+  (REQ-LOCK-REPROCESSING-POOL), so its output quality improves
+  automatically as the run progresses. **Rule:** weights are authored for
+  the *fully unlocked* pool state; early-game behavior falls out of
+  renormalization for free and needs no separate staging.
+- **Rule: ship scrap drops are derived, never authored.** A destroyed ship
+  drops `threat cost × scrap_per_threat` (a `world.toml` key), with the
+  threat cost computed from its actual hull plus installed modules
+  (REQ-MOD-THREAT) — a kitted-out ship drops more scrap than a bare hull
+  automatically. `ships.toml` carries no scrap value. Defence stations are
+  the exception: they keep authored `scrap_drop_formula`s, because pushing
+  rewards are tuned independently of ship production costs.
+- Consequence: the threat value of scrap is the constant
+  `1 / scrap_per_threat` (REQ-THREAT-SCRAP). The former min-`scrap_drop`
+  schematic derivation and its potential circularity are gone.
+- **Rule:** the late-game input's income rate meaningfully gates capital
+  production — unlocking a capital hull must not mean spamming it; the
+  input trickles in slowly enough that every capital ship is a noticeable
+  investment. The tuning target is relative, not absolute: assume a
+  reference player who destroys and salvages roughly the threat the game
+  spawns ("fighting at parity"), and tune `scrap_per_threat`, the
+  reprocessing weights, and capital material costs so that this player
+  affords roughly N capital ships per boss cycle. An absolute income rate
+  would be meaningless (income depends entirely on how much the player
+  fights) and would not self-scale; per boss cycle, the target tracks the
+  threat rate as it steps up.
+
+## Building block economy
+
+- Building blocks are the only global currency and the early game's
+  central constraint. The early game is a bootstrap problem: convert the
+  starting stock into a self-sustaining block loop before the first waves
+  bite.
+- **Rule:** the starting stock suffices for a minimal block loop plus the
+  first shipyard — with a little slack for beginner mistakes, but not
+  enough to skip the loop entirely.
+- **Rule: the growth curve lives here.** A saturated building produces
+  exactly 1 threat/s, so the player's output curve *is* their
+  building-count curve — shaping growth over a run means shaping the
+  block and space economy, there is nowhere else it can live. Intended
+  shape: exponential bootstrap (block-limited) → ramp
+  (expansion-limited) → asymptotic squeeze as expansion costs outrun
+  income, racing the enemy threat rate throughout.
+- **Rule: escalating expansion costs.** Expansion cost is a formula of
+  the number of expansions already purchased, rising steeply enough that
+  expansions eventually outrun any block income. The starting asteroid
+  is deliberately small — filled within the first boss cycle or two, so
+  the early exponential burst is a satisfying ramp, not a balance hole —
+  and from then on the output curve is the expansion curve. Blocks keep
+  a meaningful sink for the entire run, and "grow vs. army" stays a live
+  decision at every moment.
+- **Rule: designed doubling time.** Block production is a positive
+  feedback loop (blocks buy assemblers, assemblers make blocks); its
+  time constant is a designed quantity, never an accident of quantity
+  choice. The block chain's depth and the per-building costs are tuned
+  against a stated target of the form: "a factory spending X% of its
+  capacity on blocks doubles in ~T minutes."
+- **Rule: growth is limited by economy, never by waiting.** Construction
+  times stay short; the serial build queue must not be used as a growth
+  brake. Waiting for placed buildings to become operational — especially
+  at the start of a run — is frustration, not gameplay. All growth
+  limiting comes from block income and expansion pricing.
+- Note: block income has a structural ceiling — blocks enter the stock
+  through the HQ's single belt port, so income is capped at belt
+  throughput regardless of assembler count. Per-building costs should be
+  high enough that this cap can bind late-game (see the condensed-block
+  idea under Open tasks).
+
+## Numeric guardrails
+
+Constraints that every recipe must respect, independent of tuning:
+
+- **Belt throughput:** belt speed and per-tile capacity cap how fast a
+  single belt can feed an input. A recipe whose per-cycle inputs cannot be
+  sustained by one belt per input at 100% duty cycle is a *deliberate*
+  design (forcing parallel belts/splitters as part of a high-tier puzzle)
+  — never an accident of quantity choice.
+- **Buffer burstiness:** input buffers hold 2× the per-cycle amount
+  (REQ-MAT-INPUT-BUFFER), so large per-cycle quantities create bursty belt
+  demand. Low tiers prefer small quantities with short cycles; big-batch
+  recipes are reserved for high tiers where burstiness is part of the
+  puzzle.
+- **Cycle times scale with tier** monotonically — a higher-tier item never
+  has a shorter total chain time than a lower-tier item of the same role.
+
+## Open tasks / future work
+
+- **Rework `recipes.toml`** once the rules in this document are fixed: the
+  current tree feels too close to Factorio; apply the thematic-naming rule
+  and the ratio curve to it (renames and quantity changes, not new items).
+- **Balancing pass** (see placeholders in `content_design.md`): set the
+  `unlock_at_station_level` ladder, real threat costs and
+  `default_modules`, reprocessing weights, and the threat-rate formulas
+  according to the rules above.
+- **Condensed building blocks** — a drop-unlockable shortcut-style
+  recipe that packs several blocks' worth of value into one belt item,
+  relieving the HQ intake ceiling (see Building block economy) as a
+  late-game reward. The ceiling is the puzzle, the drop is the fix —
+  same philosophy as shortcut recipes.
+- **Mk2 upgrade recipes** — the deferred design for per-item progression,
+  to revisit once the config has stabilized. A duplicate-style drop
+  unlocks a distinct `*_mk2` item whose recipe consumes the Mk1 item plus
+  higher-tier parts. This preserves power-per-threat (the extra power is
+  paid in real production-seconds, since threat is recursive), satisfies
+  the refactorability rule (the Mk1 line keeps running and feeds one new
+  assembler), and keeps balancing one-dimensional (no level variable
+  anywhere). Enemy-side progression happens via `default_modules`
+  variants per era instead of a level formula.
+
+## Action items — changes beyond this document
+
+Agreed changes that require edits to `requirements.md`, the code, and the
+configs. Completed items are removed from this list (their outcomes live
+in `requirements.md` and the git history). Still open:
+
+1. **Fill unfillable schematic slots with artifacts.** With duplicates
+   removed, the schematic drop pool can run dry — previously unreachable.
+   Decision: every slot in the choice dialog that cannot be filled with a
+   schematic because the eligible pool is exhausted is filled with an
+   artifact option instead (in addition to any artifact option granted by
+   the regular artifact roll). A push therefore always awards a full
+   dialog. Update REQ-DEF-SCHEMATIC-DROP.
+2. **Confirm wave scaling carries alone.** With per-ship level scaling
+   removed, `threat_rate_formula` is the only time-scaling axis; verify
+   the current `world.toml` values still produce the intended difficulty
+   curve (likely a review, not a retune, since the config already ran
+   with a flat ship level before the removal).
+3. **Gate shortcut-recipe drops on their inputs.** Extend the assembler
+   recipe schematic pool eligibility in REQ-DEF-SCHEMATIC-DROP: in
+   addition to the existing station-level and output-item checks, all of
+   the recipe's input item types must be implicitly unlocked as well.
+4. **Expansion cost formula.** Replace the flat
+   `world.toml [expansion].cost_building_blocks` with a formula of the
+   number of expansions already purchased (x = expansions bought so
+   far), so expansion costs can escalate per the block economy rules.
+   Update REQ-EXP-COST and wherever the UI displays the expansion cost.
+5. **Resource deposits.** Add a terrain deposit layer per the Resource
+   deposits rules: deposit patches generated in expansion columns
+   (deterministic content per expansion, randomized placement within the
+   new columns), deposit rendering, and a miner condition (a resource
+   recipe is selectable only if the miner's footprint overlaps at least
+   one matching deposit tile). Touches REQ-BLD-MINER ("every asteroid
+   tile is equivalent" no longer holds), REQ-GW-ASTEROID-EXPAND /
+   REQ-EXP-*, `world.toml`, and `visuals.toml`.
+6. **Scrap-consuming recipes as threat fallback only.** Amend
+   REQ-THREAT-ITEM: recipes that take scrap as an input participate in
+   an item's threat computation only if no scrap-free recipe (miner,
+   smelter, or assembler) produces that item — mirroring the existing
+   rule for the reprocessing path. Otherwise the scrap→ingot smelter
+   recipe would inflate the basic materials' threat via the
+   max-across-recipes rule, poisoning every downstream value.
+7. **Per-unit item threat.** Amend REQ-THREAT-ITEM and
+   `ThreatCostCalculator`: a recipe's threat is divided by its output
+   amount, so item threat is production-seconds *per unit*. Currently a
+   recipe producing 2 copper_wire per run assigns each wire the full
+   run's threat, double-pricing multi-output items and everything
+   downstream of them.
+8. **Fixpoint resolution in ThreatCostCalculator.** Items downstream of
+   reprocessing-only items (e.g. capital parts built from the scrap-only
+   input) never resolve, because resolution stops after the reprocessing
+   pass instead of iterating; their consumers silently drop the missing
+   materials, so capital hull threat is currently underestimated (found
+   by `tools/threat_report.py`, which implements the correct fixpoint).
+9. **Max rule across staggered recipes in ThreatCostCalculator.** An
+   item is committed at the first iteration where *any* of its recipes
+   resolves, taking the max only over the recipes resolvable at that
+   point. A shallow shortcut recipe (e.g. steel plate from raw ore)
+   resolves one iteration earlier than the base path and wins, silently
+   underpricing the item and everything downstream — violating the
+   "shortcuts are pure rewards" rule. Fix: commit an item's threat only
+   once every eligible recipe for it is computable (as
+   `tools/threat_report.py` does), with a fallback for recipe cycles.
--- a/tools/threat_report.py
+++ b/tools/threat_report.py
@@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Report threat values, ship costs, ratios, and belt feasibility.
+
+Reads recipes.toml, ships.toml, modules.toml, and world.toml and prints:
+
+  1. Item threats — production-seconds per item unit, resolved
+     recursively over the recipe tree (REQ-THREAT-ITEM):
+       - non-reprocessing recipe: (duration + sum(input threat * qty))
+         divided by the output amount, so threat is per unit;
+       - multiple recipes: the maximum across them;
+       - recipes consuming scrap participate only if no scrap-free
+         recipe produces the item (fallback rule);
+       - reprocessing-only items: (scrap threat * scrap per cycle
+         + duration) / normalized probability (REQ-THREAT-ITEM).
+     Scrap threat is the constant 1 / world.scrap_per_threat
+     (REQ-THREAT-SCRAP).
+  2. Module contributions — material threat + production time per
+     module instance (the amount a module adds to a ship's threat).
+  3. Ship threats — hull-only and fitted with default_modules (the
+     loadout enemy waves spawn with, REQ-WAV-DEFAULT-MODULES).
+  4. Producer:consumer ratios — buildings of the input recipe needed
+     per building of the consuming recipe at 100% throughput.
+  5. Belt feasibility — input demand in items/s per building vs. the
+     single-belt cap (belt_speed_mps / tile_size_m, in items/s).
+
+NOTE: the per-unit division (1) and the scrap fallback rule are the
+agreed design semantics (see docs/progression_design.md action items);
+src/lib/sim/ThreatCostCalculator.cpp does not implement them yet. Until
+it does, this report is the design reference, not a mirror of the game.
+
+Usage (from the repository root or anywhere else):
+
+    python dota_factory/tools/threat_report.py
+    python dota_factory/tools/threat_report.py --config-dir path/to/config
+
+By default the config directory is resolved relative to this script
+(../bin/app/data/config). Requires the 'toml' package on Python < 3.11
+(pip install --user toml); on 3.11+ the standard tomllib is used.
+"""
+
+import argparse
+import os
+import sys
+
+
+def load_toml(path):
+    try:
+        import tomllib
+        with open(path, "rb") as fh:
+            return tomllib.load(fh)
+    except ImportError:
+        import toml
+        return toml.load(path)
+
+
+def consumes_scrap(recipe):
+    return any(inp["item"] == "scrap" for inp in recipe.get("inputs", []))
+
+
+def recipe_threat_per_unit(recipe, output, item_threat):
+    threat = recipe["duration_seconds"]
+    for inp in recipe.get("inputs", []):
+        if inp["item"] not in item_threat:
+            return None
+        threat += item_threat[inp["item"]] * inp["amount"]
+    return threat / output["amount"]
+
+
+def resolve_items(recipes, scrap_threat):
+    """Return {item: threat} resolved per REQ-THREAT-ITEM."""
+    non_repro = [r for r in recipes if r["building"] != "reprocessing_plant"]
+    repro = [r for r in recipes if r["building"] == "reprocessing_plant"]
+
+    # Items with at least one scrap-free producer: their scrap-consuming
+    # recipes never participate (fallback rule).
+    scrap_free_items = set()
+    for recipe in non_repro:
+        if not consumes_scrap(recipe):
+            for output in recipe.get("outputs", []):
+                scrap_free_items.add(output["item"])
+
+    def eligible(recipe, output):
+        if consumes_scrap(recipe) and output["item"] in scrap_free_items:
+            return False
+        return True
+
+    item_threat = {"scrap": scrap_threat}
+
+    # All eligible (recipe, output) pairs per item: the max rule requires
+    # committing an item only once EVERY eligible recipe for it is
+    # computable — otherwise a shallow shortcut recipe that resolves one
+    # pass earlier than the base path would win and underprice the item.
+    recipes_per_item = {}
+    for recipe in non_repro:
+        for output in recipe.get("outputs", []):
+            if eligible(recipe, output):
+                recipes_per_item.setdefault(output["item"], []).append(
+                    (recipe, output))
+
+    def resolve_pass(require_all_recipes=True):
+        progress = False
+        best = {}
+        for item, pairs in recipes_per_item.items():
+            if item in item_threat:
+                continue
+            threats = [recipe_threat_per_unit(r, o, item_threat)
+                       for r, o in pairs]
+            if require_all_recipes and any(t is None for t in threats):
+                continue
+            threats = [t for t in threats if t is not None]
+            if threats:
+                best[item] = max(threats)
+        for item, threat in best.items():
+            item_threat[item] = threat
+            progress = True
+        return progress
+
+    def repro_pass():
+        progress = False
+        for recipe in repro:
+            scrap_per_cycle = sum(inp["amount"]
+                                  for inp in recipe.get("inputs", []))
+            total_weight = sum(out.get("probability", 1.0)
+                               for out in recipe.get("outputs", []))
+            for output in recipe.get("outputs", []):
+                # Reprocessing defines an item's threat only when nothing
+                # else produces it (REQ-THREAT-ITEM).
+                if output["item"] in item_threat:
+                    continue
+                if output["item"] in scrap_free_items:
+                    continue
+                probability = output.get("probability", 1.0) / total_weight
+                if probability <= 0.0:
+                    continue
+                item_threat[output["item"]] = (
+                    (scrap_threat * scrap_per_cycle
+                     + recipe["duration_seconds"]) / probability)
+                progress = True
+        return progress
+
+    # Iterate to a fixpoint: items downstream of reprocessing-only items
+    # (e.g. capital parts built from voidsteel) need another recipe pass
+    # after the reprocessing pass has resolved their inputs.
+    progress = True
+    while progress:
+        progress = resolve_pass()
+        progress = repro_pass() or progress
+
+    # Deadlock guard: if recipe cycles keep items waiting on each other,
+    # fall back to committing with the computable subset of recipes.
+    progress = True
+    while progress:
+        progress = resolve_pass(require_all_recipes=False)
+        progress = repro_pass() or progress
+
+    return item_threat
+
+
+def material_threat(materials, item_threat, missing):
+    total = 0.0
+    for material in materials:
+        if material["item"] in item_threat:
+            total += item_threat[material["item"]] * material["amount"]
+        else:
+            missing.add(material["item"])
+    return total
+
+
+def main():
+    default_dir = os.path.normpath(os.path.join(
+        os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)),
+        "..", "bin", "app", "data", "config"))
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Report threat values, ship costs, ratios, and belt"
+                    " feasibility from the config files.")
+    parser.add_argument("--config-dir", default=default_dir,
+                        help="directory containing the config toml files"
+                             " (default: %(default)s)")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    recipes = load_toml(os.path.join(args.config_dir, "recipes.toml"))["recipe"]
+    ships = load_toml(os.path.join(args.config_dir, "ships.toml"))["ship"]
+    modules = load_toml(os.path.join(args.config_dir, "modules.toml"))["module"]
+    world = load_toml(os.path.join(args.config_dir, "world.toml"))["world"]
+
+    scrap_per_threat = world.get("scrap_per_threat", 0.0)
+    scrap_threat = 1.0 / scrap_per_threat if scrap_per_threat > 0 else 0.0
+    belt_cap = world["belt_speed_mps"] / world["tile_size_m"]  # items/s
+
+    item_threat = resolve_items(recipes, scrap_threat)
+    missing = set()
+
+    print("scrap_per_threat = {}  =>  threat(scrap) = {:.2f}".format(
+        scrap_per_threat, scrap_threat))
+    print()
+
+    print("== item threats (production-seconds per unit) ==")
+    for item in sorted(item_threat):
+        if item != "scrap":
+            print("  {:24s} {:10.2f}".format(item, item_threat[item]))
+
+    print()
+    print("== module contributions (materials + production time) ==")
+    module_contribution = {}
+    for module in modules:
+        contribution = (material_threat(module["materials"], item_threat, missing)
+                        + module["production_time_seconds"])
+        module_contribution[module["id"]] = contribution
+        print("  {:24s} {:10.2f}".format(module["id"], contribution))
+
+    print()
+    print("== ship threats (hull-only / fitted with default_modules) ==")
+    for ship in ships:
+        hull = (material_threat(ship["schematic"]["materials"], item_threat, missing)
+                + ship["schematic"]["production_time_seconds"])
+        fitted = hull
+        for placed in ship.get("default_modules", []):
+            fitted += module_contribution.get(placed["type"], 0.0)
+        print("  {:16s} hull {:9.2f}   fitted {:9.2f}".format(
+            ship["id"], hull, fitted))
+
+    print()
+    print("== producer:consumer ratios (producing buildings per consuming"
+          " building) ==")
+    producers = {}  # item -> [(recipe id, items/s per building)]
+    for recipe in recipes:
+        if recipe["building"] == "reprocessing_plant":
+            continue
+        for output in recipe.get("outputs", []):
+            rate = output["amount"] / recipe["duration_seconds"]
+            producers.setdefault(output["item"], []).append((recipe["id"], rate))
+    for recipe in recipes:
+        for inp in recipe.get("inputs", []):
+            need = inp["amount"] / recipe["duration_seconds"]
+            for producer_id, supply in producers.get(inp["item"], []):
+                print("  {:20s} -> {:24s} {:6.3f}".format(
+                    producer_id, recipe["id"], need / supply))
+
+    print()
+    print("== belt feasibility (input demand items/s per building,"
+          " cap {:.2f}/s) ==".format(belt_cap))
+    over = False
+    for recipe in recipes:
+        for inp in recipe.get("inputs", []):
+            rate = inp["amount"] / recipe["duration_seconds"]
+            if rate > belt_cap:
+                print("  OVER: {} <- {}: {:.2f}/s".format(
+                    recipe["id"], inp["item"], rate))
+                over = True
+    if not over:
+        print("  all input demands under the single-belt cap")
+
+    if missing:
+        print()
+        for item in sorted(missing):
+            print("WARNING: no threat value for material '{}'".format(item))
+
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())