first full balancing round

docs/content_design.md

@@ -129,7 +129,12 @@ Maximum simultaneous (disjoint) placements: m guns — cruiser 2,
 battlecruiser 3, battleship 4; l guns — battleship 1, dreadnought 3;
 drone hangar — carrier 1.
 
-## Production tree
+## Production tree (first pass — superseded)
+
+**Superseded (July 2026):** this first-pass tree predates the rules in
+`docs/progression_design.md` and will be replaced. The decisions for the
+redesign are recorded in "Production tree v2 — decisions" below; the text
+of this section is kept for reference until the new tree lands.
 
 Design principle: each game phase adds exactly one new base input chain, so
 factory complexity ramps alongside ship size.
@@ -171,6 +176,319 @@ It verifies every consumed item has a producer, every item has a visuals
 entry, flags orphaned items, and prints which items are reprocessing-only
 (currently exactly advanced_alloy).
 
+## Production tree v2 — decisions (July 2026)
+
+The old tree is discarded; the new one is designed against the rules in
+`docs/progression_design.md` (ratio curve, cost ladder, cost archetypes,
+refactorability). Decisions fixed so far:
+
+### Base inputs (4) and fiction
+
+- **iron_ore, copper_ore** — from the start, minable on every asteroid
+  tile. Fiction: the asteroid is an M-type (metal) body — its bulk rock
+  *is* ore, which is why the shipyard operation was built here at all.
+- **quartz** — mid-game, minable only on geode deposit patches in
+  expansion territory (see the Resource deposits rules in
+  `progression_design.md`). Fiction: ordinary silicate dust is everywhere
+  and worthless; chips and optics need rare, pocket-bound optical-grade
+  crystal.
+- **voidsteel** — late-game, obtained only by reprocessing scrap.
+  Fiction: battle-forged — formed when weapon plasma anneals hull metal
+  in the violence of ship destruction. Any wreck yields it, including the
+  player's own; no foundry can replicate it.
+- **titanium is dropped.** Its hull-gating role moves to quartz-era
+  control systems ("you can smelt all the steel you want, but you cannot
+  steer a battlecruiser without electronics") and possibly a *quality*
+  steel step — e.g. a long-running hardened-steel recipe (time-heavy
+  archetype). Open question for the tree draft: quality step vs.
+  electronics-only gating; explicitly **not** sheer steel quantity alone.
+
+### Material palette (fingerprints per family)
+
+- **iron/steel** — structure.
+- **copper** — conduction and heat: wiring, coils, heat sinks.
+- **silicon family** (all derived from quartz): silicon (logic,
+  sensors), glass/optics (lenses, focusing crystals), ceramics (heat
+  shielding, insulators). Carries the non-metal variety without extra
+  base inputs.
+- **voidsteel** — capital-tier structure and exotics.
+- Deliberately skipped: carbon (mostly redundant with copper/ceramics),
+  plastics (drags in Factorio-style chemical chains; ceramics read more
+  sci-fi anyway), volatiles/ice (materials are build costs only — no
+  consumption mechanic to justify fuel).
+
+### Weapons
+
+- All current lasers are renamed to **railguns** (`laser_cannon_s/m/l` →
+  `railgun_s/m/l`); footprints and the gating matrix are unchanged.
+  Implementation stays as-is (instant damage application, no projectile,
+  no ammunition) — the beam visual reads as a tracer round. Materials:
+  iron slugs, copper coils, steel rails — the starting-metal fingerprint.
+- **Lasers are reserved for later** as a genuinely distinct weapon type
+  (e.g. once projectile/ammunition mechanics exist for other families),
+  arriving with quartz optics. More weapon types are planned; railguns
+  are simply the baseline tech that ships with v1.
+
+### Tree structure — draft
+
+Recipes are sketched as input lists only; quantities and durations come
+in the numbers pass, tuned so every chain sums to its threat-ladder
+value and follows the ratio curve (t1 nice → t4 strange). Glass/optics
+are cut from v1 — their only consumers would be lasers, which are
+deferred; the silicon family ships as silicon + ceramics.
+
+**Mined (miner):** `iron_ore`, `copper_ore` (every tile), `quartz`
+(geode deposits in expansion territory).
+
+**Smelted (smelter — exactly one recipe per input item):**
+
+| output | input | ratio class |
+|---|---|---|
+| iron_ingot | iron_ore | nice (1:1 or 1:2) |
+| copper_ingot | copper_ore | nice |
+| silicon | quartz | mid entry |
+| iron_ingot | scrap | the safe, boring scrap sink |
+
+**Reprocessing pool (scrap):** `iron_ingot`, `copper_ingot`, `silicon`,
+`voidsteel` — the only source of voidsteel. Weights authored for the
+fully unlocked pool state.
+
+**Tier 2 — early intermediates (clean ratios, ~2:3):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| steel_plate | iron_ingot | structure backbone, highest volume |
+| copper_wire | copper_ingot | conductors |
+| copper_coil | copper_wire | electromagnets: railguns, thrusters |
+| building_block | steel_plate | depth-3 chain = the doubling-time knob |
+
+**Tier 3 — mid intermediates (strange ratios begin, need quartz):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| control_chip | silicon + copper_wire | electronics gate for m+ hulls |
+| capacitor_bank | copper_coil + silicon | power for railgun m/l |
+| hardened_steel | steel_plate (long cycle) | quality gate for m+ hulls; time-heavy |
+| ceramic_plate | quartz | heat shielding: drives, l guns, capitals |
+| drive_unit | steel_plate + copper_coil + control_chip | propulsion for m+ hulls |
+
+**Tier 4 — late intermediates (need voidsteel):**
+
+| item | inputs | role |
+|---|---|---|
+| voidsteel_plate | voidsteel + hardened_steel | capital structure |
+| capital_core | voidsteel + capacitor_bank + control_chip | capital heart |
+
+**Hull items** (`<ship>_hull`, assembler-made; the shipyard consumes the
+hull item plus module materials). The m+ hull gate is resolved as
+**both** of the open-question options: hardened_steel (quality steel, a
+deliberately long-running recipe — the time-heavy step) *and*
+control_chip (electronics):
+
+| hull | inputs |
+|---|---|
+| drone_hull | steel_plate |
+| frigate_hull | steel_plate + copper_wire |
+| destroyer_hull | steel_plate + copper_coil |
+| cruiser_hull | hardened_steel + control_chip |
+| battlecruiser_hull | hardened_steel + control_chip + drive_unit |
+| battleship_hull | voidsteel_plate + drive_unit + control_chip |
+| dreadnought_hull | voidsteel_plate + capital_core + drive_unit |
+| carrier_hull | voidsteel_plate + capital_core + drive_unit |
+
+**Module items** (`<module>_module`, assembler-made prefabs — kept as
+items so shipyard belt inputs stay simple and module production can be
+stockpiled):
+
+| module | inputs | archetype |
+|---|---|---|
+| railgun_s | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| salvager | steel_plate + copper_wire | balanced |
+| repair_tool | steel_plate + copper_wire | balanced |
+| armor_plates | steel_plate (many) | material-heavy, fast |
+| maneuvering_thrusters | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| sensor_booster | copper_wire + copper_coil | lean (an antenna, no chip) |
+| afterburner | copper_coil + steel_plate | balanced |
+| weapon_stabilizer | steel_plate + copper_coil | balanced |
+| weapon_primer | capacitor_bank + copper_coil | mid; time-heavy |
+| weapon_upgrade | control_chip + copper_coil | mid; time-heavy |
+| railgun_m | capacitor_bank + steel_plate + copper_coil | mid |
+| drone_bay | control_chip + steel_plate + copper_coil | mid |
+| railgun_l | capacitor_bank + hardened_steel + ceramic_plate | late |
+| drone_hangar | voidsteel_plate + control_chip + drive_unit | late (carrier only) |
+
+Refactorability check (the default technique holds): railgun_s → m
+introduces capacitor_bank, built from a subset of the small gun's
+inputs (copper_coil) plus the new base resource (silicon); the m gun
+otherwise reuses the small gun's inputs. Hulls likewise: cruiser adds
+hardening (fed by the existing steel line) and chips (fed by the new
+quartz territory) without touching the iron/copper core.
+
+**Shortcut recipe candidates** (drop-only assembler schematics; not
+every strange chain gets one):
+
+- `iron_ore → steel_plate` — skips the ingot step on the highest-volume
+  chain in the game.
+- `quartz → control_chip` — skips silicon on the electronics chain.
+- `iron_ingot → hardened_steel` — a nicer-ratio route past the
+  deliberately awkward hardening step.
+
+Item count: 3 mined + scrap + 3 smelted + 4 t2 + 5 t3 + 3 t4 (incl.
+voidsteel) + 8 hulls + 14 modules ≈ 41 item types — same scale as the
+first-pass tree. `verify_recipes.py` must be re-run once this lands in
+recipes.toml; the numbers pass should add a threat-report tool that
+prints per-item threat values and producer:consumer ratio tables.
+
+### Numbers — first pass
+
+These numbers are live in the config files and verified by
+`tools/threat_report.py`; quantities and durations are tuned so fitted
+ships land on the threat-cost ladder and the ratio curve is realized.
+The typical loadouts are geometry-validated against the hull grids and
+configured as each ship's `default_modules`: the L-shaped weapon
+modifiers turned out not to fit alongside the full gun complement on
+the battlecruiser and dreadnought, so their loadouts use armor and
+small-railgun fillers instead — which moved all three heavy ships
+closer to their ladder targets.
+
+**Economy constants:** `scrap_per_threat = 0.25` (1 scrap per 4 threat
+destroyed — a cruiser kill drops ~59 scrap). Reprocessing: 4 scrap per
+cycle, 4 s, full-pool weights iron_ingot 30 / copper_ingot 30 /
+silicon 20 / voidsteel 20 → threat(voidsteel) = (4·4 + 4)/0.2 = 100.
+Scrap smelting: 1 scrap → 1 iron_ingot, 1 s — deliberately
+value-losing (4 threat of scrap becomes a 2-threat ingot); reprocessing
+is the value-preserving path.
+
+**Recipes** (dur in seconds; threat is per output item):
+
+| item | recipe | dur | out | threat |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| iron_ore / copper_ore | miner | 1 | 1 | 1 |
+| quartz | miner (deposit) | 2 | 1 | 2 |
+| iron_ingot | 1 iron_ore | 1 | 1 | 2 |
+| copper_ingot | 1 copper_ore | 1 | 1 | 2 |
+| silicon | 1 quartz | 2 | 1 | 4 |
+| steel_plate | 2 iron_ingot | 3 | 1 | 7 |
+| copper_wire | 1 copper_ingot | 1 | 2 | 1.5 |
+| copper_coil | 2 copper_wire | 1.5 | 1 | 4.5 |
+| building_block | 2 steel_plate | 2 | 4 | 4 |
+| control_chip | 1 silicon + 2 copper_wire | 5 | 1 | 12 |
+| capacitor_bank | 2 copper_coil + 1 silicon | 5 | 1 | 18 |
+| hardened_steel | 3 steel_plate | 12 | 1 | 33 |
+| ceramic_plate | 2 quartz | 4 | 1 | 8 |
+| drive_unit | 2 steel_plate + 2 copper_coil + 1 control_chip | 8 | 1 | 43 |
+| voidsteel_plate | 1 voidsteel + 1 hardened_steel | 8 | 1 | 141 |
+| capital_core | 2 voidsteel + 1 capacitor_bank + 1 control_chip | 10 | 1 | 240 |
+
+**Module prefabs** (contribution = item threat + module production
+time):
+
+| module | recipe | dur | mod. time | contribution |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| railgun_s | 1 copper_coil | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
+| salvager | 1 steel_plate + 2 copper_wire | 2 | 1 | 13 |
+| repair_tool | 1 steel_plate + 2 copper_wire | 2 | 1 | 13 |
+| armor_plates | 4 steel_plate | 3 | 1 | 32 |
+| maneuvering_thrusters | 1 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 14.5 |
+| sensor_booster | 2 copper_wire + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 10.5 |
+| afterburner | 2 copper_coil + 1 steel_plate | 3 | 1 | 20 |
+| weapon_stabilizer | 1 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 2 | 1 | 14.5 |
+| weapon_primer | 1 capacitor_bank + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 2 | 28.5 |
+| weapon_upgrade | 1 control_chip + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 2 | 22.5 |
+| railgun_m | 1 capacitor_bank + 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 43.5 |
+| drone_bay | 1 control_chip + 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 37.5 |
+| railgun_l | 1 capacitor_bank + 2 hardened_steel + 1 ceramic_plate | 6 | 4 | 102 |
+| drone_hangar | 1 voidsteel_plate + 2 control_chip + 1 drive_unit | 10 | 6 | 224 |
+
+**Ships** (fitted = hull item + ship base time + typical loadout; the
+typical loadouts double as the `default_modules` for enemy waves):
+
+| ship | hull recipe | dur | base | typical loadout | fitted (target) |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| drone | 1 iron_ingot | 1 | 1 | railgun_s | 10 (10) |
+| frigate | 2 steel_plate + 1 copper_wire | 2 | 2 | 2× railgun_s, maneuvering_thrusters | 47 (40) |
+| destroyer | 3 steel_plate + 2 copper_coil | 4 | 3 | 3× railgun_s, armor_plates, sensor_booster | 99 (80) |
+| cruiser | 2 hardened_steel + 2 control_chip | 6 | 4 | 2× railgun_m, armor_plates, maneuvering_thrusters | 234 (200) |
+| battlecruiser | 3 hardened_steel + 2 control_chip + 1 drive_unit | 8 | 5 | 3× railgun_m, armor_plates, 2× railgun_s | 355 (350) |
+| battleship | 3 voidsteel_plate + 1 drive_unit + 2 control_chip | 10 | 6 | railgun_l, 2× railgun_m, weapon_stabilizer, 2× railgun_s | 723 (700) |
+| dreadnought | 5 voidsteel_plate + 1 capital_core + 2 drive_unit | 12 | 8 | 3× railgun_l, 4× armor_plates, railgun_s | 1492 (1500) |
+| carrier | 5 voidsteel_plate + 1 capital_core + 2 drive_unit | 12 | 8 | drone_hangar, 2× railgun_m, 2× armor_plates, sensor_booster | 1436 (1500) |
+
+**Checks:**
+
+- *Ratio curve realized:* t1 all 1:1 (miner:smelter); t2 clean 2:3
+  (ingot→plate, wire→coil); t3 strange — 2:5 (silicon→chip), 3:5
+  (coil→capacitor), 3:4 (plate→hardened, plate→drive); t4 inverted 3:2
+  (hardened→voidsteel_plate).
+- *Belt feasibility:* worst input demand is 1.33 items/s (wire→coil,
+  plate→armor) — under the ~2/s single-belt cap everywhere; no
+  accidental multi-belt recipes.
+- *Block economy:* building_block = 4 threat ⇒ for the 4-minute
+  doubling at 30% capacity, the average building must cost ≈ 18 blocks
+  (0.3 × 240 / 4). buildings.toml costs should be set around that mean
+  (belts cheap, producers ~20–30).
+- *Small-end deviation:* frigate–cruiser land 6–24% hot because the
+  fixed chain overhead dominates small hulls. Recommendation: accept
+  and adjust the ladder targets to the achieved values (the ~×2-per-
+  class curve shape is preserved) rather than thinning the early
+  chains below readability.
+- *Rule bug discovered:* the scrap→iron_ingot smelter recipe combined
+  with REQ-THREAT-ITEM's max-across-recipes rule would set
+  threat(iron_ingot) to the scrap path (1 + 4 = 5, or more at other
+  scrap values) instead of 2, inflating every downstream item. Fix:
+  scrap-consuming recipes count toward an item's threat only when no
+  scrap-free recipe produces that item, mirroring the reprocessing-path
+  rule (see progression_design.md action items).
+
+## Balancing targets (first pass, July 2026)
+
+The six root numbers for the balancing pass. Every derived value (threat
+rate, recipe quantities, block costs, scrap rates, unlock ladder) is tuned
+to hit these; when rebalancing later, change these first and re-derive,
+never the other way around. The rules they follow live in
+`docs/progression_design.md`.
+
+All targets are in **game time**. The player can pause and accelerate, so
+real session length differs; playtests should measure both. The time unit
+is the boss cycle (`world.toml boss_countdown_seconds`, 300 s). Destroying
+a station set advances the boss countdown by `boss_advance_seconds`
+(60 s), so cycles run shorter than nominal when pushing actively — these
+targets deliberately ignore that; playtesting will show real run lengths.
+
+1. **Run length** — a winning run takes up to 2 hours of game time: win
+   around boss cycle 20–24. Losing runs end earlier.
+2. **Phase boundaries** — early = cycles 1–5 (iron/copper, small hulls),
+   mid = cycles 6–14 (quartz, medium hulls), late = cycles 15+
+   (voidsteel, capitals). Push cadence roughly one station set per
+   cycle from mid onward. This fixes the `unlock_at_station_level`
+   ladder and, with the artifact win count, the `artifact_chance_formula`
+   pacing.
+3. **Factory size curve** — producing buildings over time; when
+   saturated, output threat/s equals this count, so this curve IS the
+   player power curve. Targets: ~25 when the starting asteroid is full
+   (end of cycle 2), ~60 at the start of mid (cycle 6), ~120 at the
+   start of late (cycle 15), ~150 near the win. `threat_rate_formula`
+   must remain a fraction of this curve, and buildings plus belts must
+   physically fit the asteroid plus affordable expansions.
+4. **Threat-cost ladder** — total production-seconds per *fitted* hull
+   (including a typical module loadout): drone ~10, frigate ~40,
+   destroyer ~80, cruiser ~200, battlecruiser ~350, battleship ~700,
+   dreadnought/carrier ~1500. Every production chain must sum to its
+   ladder value. Cross-check against (3): fitted-ship cadence =
+   ladder value / (factory threat/s devoted to military) — e.g. a mid
+   factory spending half of 60 threat/s on ships fields a fitted
+   cruiser roughly every 7 s.
+5. **Fleet size** — swarm-leaning: ~25 player combat ships as the
+   standing mid-game fleet. Standing fleet = build cadence (4) × average
+   ship lifetime, so this target drives time-to-kill and therefore the
+   combat stat magnitudes tuned in the arena pass.
+6. **Block economy roots** — bootstrap complete (starting asteroid full)
+   by the end of cycle 2; a factory spending ~30% of its capacity on
+   blocks doubles in ~4 minutes early game; one expansion affordable per
+   cycle at ~1/3 of block income, with escalating costs that eventually
+   outrun any income (see the growth curve rules in
+   `progression_design.md`).
+
 ## Deliberate placeholders / open questions for later passes
 
 - All new hulls have `threat.cost_formula = "0"` so enemy waves do not spawn