diff --git a/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml b/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml
index 91f59c2..b409dab 100644
--- a/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/modules.toml
@@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ fill_color = "#FF8040"
 glyph = "Rm"
 
 [module.weapon]
-damage = 10
+damage = 14
 attack_range_m = 70
 attack_rate_hz = 1.5
 
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ fill_color = "#FF8040"
 glyph = "Rl"
 
 [module.weapon]
-damage = 40
+damage = 52
 attack_range_m = 100
 attack_rate_hz = 0.8
 
@@ -94,8 +94,8 @@ fill_color = "#AACC44"
 glyph = "Sv"
 
 [module.salvage]
-collection_range_m = 500
-cargo_capacity = 10
+collection_range_m = 60
+cargo_capacity = 20
 collection_rate_hz = 0.5
 
 
@@ -110,7 +110,7 @@ glyph = "Rp"
 
 [module.repair]
 repair_rate_hz = 1
-repair_amount_hp = 6
+repair_amount_hp = 12
 repair_range_m = 80
 
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ fill_color = "#808080"
 glyph = "A"
 
 [module.health]
-added_hp = 40
+added_hp = 1000
 
 
 [[module]]
diff --git a/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml b/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml
index 39394a2..876f8a0 100644
--- a/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/ships.toml
@@ -31,14 +31,14 @@ materials = [{item = "drone_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 1
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 3
+hp = 60
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 40
-main_acceleration_mpss = 2
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 1
-angular_acceleration_radpss = 12.56
-max_rotation_speed_radps = 6.28
+speed_mps = 45
+main_acceleration_mpss = 60
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 30
+angular_acceleration_radpss = 12
+max_rotation_speed_radps = 6
 
 [ship.sensor]
 sensor_range_m = 150
@@ -66,12 +66,12 @@ materials = [{item = "frigate_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 2
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 30
+hp = 300
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 30
-main_acceleration_mpss = 50
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 25
+speed_mps = 35
+main_acceleration_mpss = 45
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 22
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 8
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 4
 
@@ -102,12 +102,12 @@ materials = [{item = "destroyer_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 3
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 50
+hp = 550
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 25
-main_acceleration_mpss = 40
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 20
+speed_mps = 30
+main_acceleration_mpss = 35
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 18
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 6
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 3
 
@@ -139,12 +139,12 @@ materials = [{item = "cruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 4
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 120
+hp = 1500
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 20
-main_acceleration_mpss = 30
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 15
+speed_mps = 24
+main_acceleration_mpss = 25
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 12
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 4
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 2
 
@@ -179,12 +179,12 @@ materials = [{item = "battlecruiser_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 5
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 180
+hp = 2700
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 18
-main_acceleration_mpss = 25
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 12
+speed_mps = 20
+main_acceleration_mpss = 20
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 10
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 3
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 1.5
 
@@ -222,12 +222,12 @@ materials = [{item = "battleship_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 6
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 350
+hp = 7500
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 14
-main_acceleration_mpss = 18
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 8
+speed_mps = 15
+main_acceleration_mpss = 14
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 7
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 2
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 1
 
@@ -267,12 +267,12 @@ materials = [{item = "dreadnought_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 800
+hp = 15500
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 8
-main_acceleration_mpss = 10
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 5
+speed_mps = 10
+main_acceleration_mpss = 8
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 4
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 1
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 0.5
 
@@ -308,12 +308,12 @@ materials = [{item = "carrier_hull", amount = 1}]
 production_time_seconds = 8
 
 [ship.health]
-hp = 700
+hp = 15500
 
 [ship.movement]
-speed_mps = 9
-main_acceleration_mpss = 10
-maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 5
+speed_mps = 10
+main_acceleration_mpss = 8
+maneuvering_acceleration_mpss = 4
 angular_acceleration_radpss = 1
 max_rotation_speed_radps = 0.5
 
diff --git a/bin/app/data/config/stations.toml b/bin/app/data/config/stations.toml
index 94ba18b..15af5a8 100644
--- a/bin/app/data/config/stations.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/stations.toml
@@ -1,10 +1,18 @@
+# stations.toml
+#
+# Combat-pass anchors (see docs/content_design.md, "Combat stat anchors"):
+# a fresh player defence station holds one early parity wave unaided; the
+# enemy station at level 0 matches the player station exactly and scales
+# with the push level x. Station scrap drops stay authored (pushing rewards
+# are tuned independently of ship production costs, REQ-RES-SCRAP-DROP).
+
 [hq]
 surface_mask = [
   "AAA",
   "AAA",
   "AAA",
 ]
-hp_formula = "1000"
+hp_formula = "5000"
 
 [player_station]
 surface_mask = [
@@ -12,19 +20,19 @@ surface_mask = [
   "SS",
 ]
 level = 1
-hp_formula = "300"
-damage_formula = "5"
-range_m_formula = "200"
+hp_formula = "3000"
+damage_formula = "25"
+range_m_formula = "120"
 fire_rate_hz_formula = "1"
-scrap_drop_formula = "10"
+scrap_drop_formula = "40"
 
 [enemy_station]
 surface_mask = [
   "SS",
   "SS",
 ]
-hp_formula = "300 + 150*x"
-damage_formula = "2 + 1*x"
-range_m_formula = "200"
-fire_rate_hz_formula = "1.0 + 0.2*x"
-scrap_drop_formula = "10 + 5*x"
+hp_formula = "3000 + 1500*x"
+damage_formula = "25 + 12*x"
+range_m_formula = "120"
+fire_rate_hz_formula = "1.0 + 0.1*x"
+scrap_drop_formula = "40 + 30*x"
diff --git a/bin/app/data/config/world.toml b/bin/app/data/config/world.toml
index 3a2a92f..cdac851 100644
--- a/bin/app/data/config/world.toml
+++ b/bin/app/data/config/world.toml
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 height_tiles = 40
 refund_percentage = 100
 starting_building_blocks = 1000
-scrap_despawn_seconds = 30
+scrap_despawn_seconds = 120
 scrap_per_threat = 0.25
 tile_size_m = 10
 belt_speed_mps = 20
diff --git a/bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml b/bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml
index bf210ee..63b90ff 100644
--- a/bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml
+++ b/bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml
@@ -1,67 +1,396 @@
+# balancing.toml — canonical arena suite for the combat stats pass.
+#
+# Ship counts are chosen so both teams have (near-)equal total threat,
+# using the verified fitted threat values from tools/threat_report.py:
+#   drone 10.5, frigate 47, destroyer 99, cruiser 233.5,
+#   battlecruiser 354.5, battleship 722.5, dreadnought 1491.5,
+#   carrier 1436.5, glass destroyer (8 small guns) 92, repair drone 17.
+# Module arrays mirror the ships' default_modules loadouts unless a
+# doctrine variant is the point of the arena.
+#
+# Expectations: mirror matches and equal-threat cross-tier matchups should
+# be near-draws (power-per-threat rule); the two-to-one arena must be a
+# decisive win for the larger team. "Cruisers vs carrier" is EXPECTED to be
+# a loss for the carrier until the drone-launching capability exists — the
+# hangar is 224 threat of dead weight.
+
+# --- mirrors (sanity: symmetric outcomes, fight duration in the 30-60 s band) ---
+
 [[arena]]
-name = "Fighters vs Sniper"
-height_tiles = 20
+name = "Mirror: drones 20v20"
+height_tiles = 30
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
-contest_zone_width_tiles = 60
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
   [[arena.team]]
   name = "Alpha"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
     schematic = "drone"
-    count = 5
+    count = 20
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
     ]
 
   [[arena.team]]
   name = "Beta"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
     schematic = "drone"
-    count = 2
+    count = 20
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
-      {type = "weapon_stabilizer",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
-      {type = "weapon_stabilizer",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
-      {type = "weapon_upgrade",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
-      {type = "sensor_booster",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
-      {type = "sensor_booster",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
     ]
 
 [[arena]]
-name = "Fighters vs Supported"
-height_tiles = 20
+name = "Mirror: cruisers 6v6"
+height_tiles = 30
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
-contest_zone_width_tiles = 60
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
 enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
 
   [[arena.team]]
-  name = "Fighters"
+  name = "Alpha"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
-    schematic = "drone"
-    count = 5
+    schematic = "cruiser"
+    count = 6
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
     ]
 
   [[arena.team]]
-  name = "Supported"
+  name = "Beta"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
-    schematic = "drone"
-    count = 3
+    schematic = "cruiser"
+    count = 6
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
     ]
 
+[[arena]]
+name = "Mirror: battleships 2v2"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Alpha"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "battleship"
+    count = 2
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "weapon_stabilizer", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Beta"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "battleship"
+    count = 2
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "weapon_stabilizer", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+# --- equal-threat cross-tier matchups (power-per-threat: expect near-draws) ---
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Drone swarm vs cruisers (462 vs 467)"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Swarm"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "drone"
+    count = 44
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Cruisers"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "cruiser"
+    count = 2
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Frigates vs battleship (705 vs 723)"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Frigates"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "frigate"
+    count = 15
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Battleship"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "battleship"
+    count = 1
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "weapon_stabilizer", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Destroyers vs dreadnought (1485 vs 1492)"
+height_tiles = 40
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Destroyers"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "destroyer"
+    count = 15
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Dreadnought"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "dreadnought"
+    count = 1
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_l", x = 8, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 3, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 5, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 2, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 7, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 7, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Cruisers vs carrier (1401 vs 1437, carrier expected to lose)"
+height_tiles = 40
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Cruisers"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "cruiser"
+    count = 6
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Carrier"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "carrier"
+    count = 1
+    modules = [
+      {type = "drone_hangar", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 3, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 6, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 8, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 4, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Mixed mid vs battlecruisers (1394 vs 1418)"
+height_tiles = 40
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Mixed"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "destroyer"
+    count = 7
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "cruiser"
+    count = 3
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 1, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Battlecruisers"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "battlecruiser"
+    count = 4
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_m", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 2, y = 3, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 2, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+# --- asymmetric checks ---
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Two to one (must be decisive)"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Six"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "frigate"
+    count = 6
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Three"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "frigate"
+    count = 3
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Armored vs glass destroyers (1188 vs 1196)"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Armored"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "destroyer"
+    count = 12
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "armor_plates", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "sensor_booster", x = 3, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Glass"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "destroyer"
+    count = 13
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 3, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 4, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+[[arena]]
+name = "Repair escort vs raw numbers (444 vs 444)"
+height_tiles = 30
+player_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+contest_zone_width_tiles = 50
+enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 10
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Escorted"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "frigate"
+    count = 8
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "drone"
+    count = 4
+    modules = [
+      {type = "repair_tool", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
+
+  [[arena.team]]
+  name = "Raw"
+    [[arena.team.ship]]
+    schematic = "frigate"
+    count = 9
+    modules = [
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 1, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 2, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "maneuvering_thrusters", x = 0, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+    ]
     [[arena.team.ship]]
     schematic = "drone"
     count = 2
     modules = [
-      {type = "repair_tool",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
     ]
 
 [[arena]]
-name = "Stations and Ships"
+name = "Station assault (2 stations + 105 vs 315)"
 height_tiles = 60
 player_buffer_width_tiles = 15
 contest_zone_width_tiles = 40
@@ -71,9 +400,9 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 15
   name = "Fortified"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
     schematic = "drone"
-    count = 3
+    count = 10
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",   x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
     ]
     [[arena.team.station]]
     type = "player_station"
@@ -90,7 +419,7 @@ enemy_buffer_width_tiles = 15
   name = "Swarm"
     [[arena.team.ship]]
     schematic = "drone"
-    count = 8
+    count = 30
     modules = [
-      {type = "laser_cannon_s",  x = 1, y = 1, rotation = "east"},
+      {type = "railgun_s", x = 0, y = 0, rotation = "east"},
     ]
diff --git a/docs/content_design.md b/docs/content_design.md
index bb2a727..80533df 100644
--- a/docs/content_design.md
+++ b/docs/content_design.md
@@ -440,6 +440,73 @@ typical loadouts double as the `default_modules` for enemy waves):
   scrap-free recipe produces that item, mirroring the reprocessing-path
   rule (see progression_design.md action items).
 
+### Combat stat anchors — first pass
+
+All combat stats derive from a few anchors so that power-per-threat holds
+by construction; the arena suite in `bin/balancing/data/balancing.toml`
+verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
+
+- **Weapon DPS per threat pays a concentration tax that grows with gun
+  size**: railgun_s 2 dmg × 2.0 Hz = 4.0 DPS at 6.5 threat (0.62),
+  range 50; railgun_m 14 × 1.5 = 21 at 43.5 (0.48), range 70;
+  railgun_l 52 × 0.8 = 41.6 at 102 (0.41), range 100. Arena round 1
+  (see below) showed that at equal threat, concentrated fleets win
+  flawlessly with a flat-ish DPS curve — concentration itself (focus
+  survivability, range, no losses-to-attrition of own DPS) is worth
+  paying for, so bigger guns get less raw DPS per threat.
+- **Hull HP = 15 per threat of hull contribution** (incl. ship base
+  time): drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550, cruiser 1500,
+  battlecruiser 2700, battleship 7500, dreadnought/carrier 15500.
+- **Armor HP ≈ 31 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
+  because armor is pure HP with no capability, and fights snowball:
+  killing enemies removes their DPS, while surviving merely delays —
+  so a point of HP must be cheaper than a point of DPS.
+  armor_plates adds 1000 HP at 32 threat (arena round 1: at 640 the
+  all-guns destroyer beat the armored one).
+- **TTK check:** a mirror cruiser duel (51 DPS vs 2140 EHP) lasts ~42 s —
+  inside the 30–60 s parity-fight band implied by the 25-ship fleet
+  target. Capital mirrors run longer (~90 s), deliberately.
+- **Repair ≈ 1 HP/s per threat:** repair_tool heals 12 HP × 1 Hz at 13
+  threat (arena round 1: at 2 HP/s-per-threat the escorted team won
+  flawlessly — in-combat sustain effectively removes enemy DPS and must
+  be priced like DPS, not like HP). Salvager: collection range 60 (was
+  a nonsensical 500, beyond any sensor), cargo 20, 0.5 collections/s.
+  `scrap_despawn_seconds` raised 30 → 120: a capital kill drops
+  hundreds of scrap collected one per cycle, so 30 s despawned nearly
+  everything.
+- **Mobility ladder is monotone in size** — small = fast and nimble
+  (drone 45 m/s, 60 accel) down to capitals (10 m/s, 8 accel); the old
+  placeholder had the drone as the least agile ship. Sensor ranges keep
+  the existing 150→350 ladder; all weapon ranges stay below sensor
+  ranges.
+- **Weapon modifiers are capital economy:** ×1.2 damage at 22.5 threat
+  beats adding a gun once a ship carries more than ~68 threat of weapons
+  — so modifiers pay off on gun-heavy big hulls and are a waste on small
+  ones. Kept at ×1.2/×1.2/(×1.5 range, ×0.8 rate) deliberately.
+- **Stations:** a fresh player station (3000 HP, 25 dmg × 1 Hz,
+  range 120) holds one early parity wave unaided; the enemy station at
+  level 0 matches it exactly and scales per push level
+  (+1500 HP, +12 dmg, +0.1 Hz per level). HQ 5000 HP. Range reduced
+  from 200 in round 1: at 200 (4× a small gun's range) two stations
+  annihilated a 3× threat swarm through approach fire alone — range,
+  not HP, is the station dominance lever.
+- **Known imbalance, accepted:** the carrier loses its equal-threat
+  arena until the drone-launching capability exists — the hangar is 224
+  threat of dead weight. Do not compensate with stats; fix by
+  implementing drones.
+
+**Arena round 1 results (2026-07-04):** mirrors snowball as expected
+(40–50% of the winner survives) but team 1 won all three mirrors —
+possible sim-side bias, under investigation (progression_design.md
+action items 6–7). All four equal-threat cross-tier matchups were
+flawless wins for the concentrated side; glass destroyers beat armored;
+repair escort beat raw numbers flawlessly; two stations shrugged off a
+3× threat swarm. Round-2 knob changes: concentration tax on m/l gun
+DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range
+200→120. Gun ranges deliberately untouched — if concentrated fleets
+still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next
+suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts.
+
 ## Balancing targets (first pass, July 2026)
 
 The six root numbers for the balancing pass. Every derived value (threat
diff --git a/docs/progression_design.md b/docs/progression_design.md
index 6e9fb17..564f941 100644
--- a/docs/progression_design.md
+++ b/docs/progression_design.md
@@ -373,3 +373,15 @@ in `requirements.md` and the git history). Still open:
    one matching deposit tile). Touches REQ-BLD-MINER ("every asteroid
    tile is equivalent" no longer holds), REQ-GW-ASTEROID-EXPAND /
    REQ-EXP-*, `world.toml`, and `visuals.toml`.
+6. **Investigate team-1 bias in balancing arenas.** In arena round 1
+   (July 2026), team 1 won all three mirror matches with large margins
+   (8/20, 3/6, 1/2 survivors). Re-run mirrors repeatedly; if team 1
+   wins consistently, find and fix the asymmetry (spawn geometry, tick
+   processing order, target-selection tie-breaking). Mirror matches
+   must be statistically symmetric or every arena result carries a
+   side-dependent error.
+7. **Log remaining HP in the balancing arena results.** Win/loss alone
+   hides the margin ("1/1 battleship" can mean 95% or 5% HP left). Add
+   the surviving entities' remaining HP fraction (or a per-team total
+   EHP percentage) to the arena end state, so equal-threat matchups can
+   be tuned toward near-draws quantitatively.