Restructure balancing docs into docs/balancing/

Split the cluttered progression_design.md and content_design.md into
separated documents by role:

- docs/balancing/rules.md    - design rules and principles (moved from
                               progression_design.md, which is removed)
- docs/balancing/targets.md  - the chosen base numbers: run shape,
                               factory curve, threat ladder (achieved
                               values adopted), combat anchors, pacing
                               anchors
- docs/balancing/derived.md  - current tuned state of all derived
                               numbers, mirroring the configs
- docs/balancing/process.md  - pass order, tuning discipline learned in
                               arena rounds 1-5, tools, next-round
                               checklist
- docs/balancing/history.md  - chronological record: decisions, numbers
                               pass, calculator bugs, arena rounds,
                               pacing pass
- docs/balancing/README.md   - index, status, open action items (moved
                               from progression_design.md)

content_design.md slims back down to actual content: footprint gating,
hull grids, gating matrix (module names updated to railguns), and the
production tree structure with its fiction - numbers, anchors, arena
logs, and pacing all moved to docs/balancing/. Stale references in the
config comments updated to the new locations.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DyCu8vwChKMbLJQ3xosYEN

docs/balancing/targets.md

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+# Balancing Targets (base numbers)
+
+The root numbers of the balancing. Everything in `derived.md` is tuned to
+hit these; when rebalancing, **change these first and re-derive — never
+patch derived values directly**. The rules these numbers follow live in
+`rules.md`.
+
+All time targets are in **game time**. The player can pause and
+accelerate, so real session length differs; playtests measure both. The
+time unit is the boss cycle (`world.toml boss_countdown_seconds`, 300 s).
+Destroying a station set advances the boss countdown by
+`boss_advance_seconds` (60 s), so cycles run shorter than nominal when
+pushing actively — targets deliberately ignore that.
+
+## Run shape
+
+1. **Run length** — a winning run takes up to 2 hours of game time: win
+   around boss cycle 20–24. Losing runs end earlier.
+2. **Phase boundaries** — early = cycles 1–5 (iron/copper, small hulls),
+   mid = cycles 6–14 (quartz, medium hulls), late = cycles 15+
+   (voidsteel, capitals). Push cadence: first station set around cycle
+   2–3, roughly one per cycle from mid onward — so the destroyed set's
+   level ℓ is reached around cycle ℓ+2.
+3. **Factory size curve** — producing buildings over time; when
+   saturated, output threat/s equals this count, so this curve IS the
+   player power curve: ~25 when the starting asteroid is full (end of
+   cycle 2), ~60 at the start of mid (cycle 6), ~120 at the start of
+   late (cycle 15), ~150 near the win. `threat_rate_formula` must remain
+   a fraction of this curve; buildings plus belts must physically fit
+   the asteroid plus affordable expansions.
+4. **Threat-cost ladder** — total production-seconds per *fitted* hull
+   (including the typical/default module loadout): drone 10.5,
+   frigate 47, destroyer 99, cruiser 233.5, battlecruiser 354.5,
+   battleship 722.5, dreadnought 1491.5, carrier 1436.5. Every
+   production chain must sum to its ladder value. (The original strawman
+   was 10/40/80/200/350/700/1500; the small end runs ~10–20% hot because
+   fixed chain overhead dominates small hulls — accepted, and the
+   achieved values adopted as the ladder. The ~×2-per-class curve shape
+   is the invariant.)
+5. **Fleet size** — swarm-leaning: ~25 player combat ships as the
+   standing mid-game fleet. Standing fleet = build cadence (4) × average
+   ship lifetime, so this target drives time-to-kill and therefore all
+   combat stat magnitudes.
+6. **Block economy roots** — bootstrap complete (starting asteroid full)
+   by the end of cycle 2; a factory spending ~30% of its capacity on
+   blocks doubles in ~4 minutes early game; one expansion affordable per
+   cycle at ~1/3 of block income mid-game, decelerating to one per 2–3
+   cycles late as escalating costs outrun income.
+
+## Combat anchors
+
+All combat stats derive from these; per-hull HP additionally carries
+empirical trims from arena rounds (values in `derived.md`).
+
+- **Weapon DPS per threat pays a concentration tax that grows with gun
+  size**: small ≈ 0.62, medium ≈ 0.48, large ≈ 0.41 DPS per threat of
+  weapon contribution, compensated by the range ladder 50/70/100 m.
+  Rationale: concentration itself (focus fire, no DPS loss to attrition,
+  range) is worth paying for — with a flat curve, concentrated fleets
+  win equal-threat fights outright (arena round 1).
+- **Hull HP = 15 per threat of hull contribution** as the prior; per-hull
+  HP is the empirical trim knob (guns are shared across hulls, hull HP
+  moves exactly one matchup). The arena consistently prices capitals as
+  *tanks with taxed guns* — capital hulls sit well above the prior.
+- **Armor HP ≈ 37 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP because
+  armor is pure HP with no capability, and fights snowball: killing
+  removes enemy DPS, surviving merely delays — HP must be cheaper than
+  DPS.
+- **Repair ≈ 0.7 HP/s per threat** — in-combat sustain effectively
+  removes enemy DPS and must be priced like DPS, not like HP.
+- **TTK / fight duration**: parity fights in the 30–60 s band at
+  mid-game scale; capital mirrors ~90 s deliberately; the extreme
+  tank-vs-chip-damage matchup (dreadnought vs destroyer swarm, ~3.5 min)
+  is an accepted outlier.
+- **Mobility is monotone in size** — the smallest hulls are the fastest
+  and nimblest. Sensor ranges (150→350 m) always exceed weapon ranges.
+- **Weapon modifiers are capital economy**: a ×1.2 damage modifier at
+  ~22.5 threat beats adding a gun once a ship carries more than ~68
+  threat of weapons — modifiers pay off on gun-heavy big hulls, waste on
+  small ones. Range modifiers are the strongest and are priced/kept
+  small (×1.3): range is the dominant stat under the orbit AI (free
+  approach fire).
+- **Stations**: a fresh player station holds one early parity wave
+  unaided; the enemy station at level 0 matches the player station
+  exactly and scales per push level. Station range is the dominance
+  lever, not HP (at 4× a small gun's range, two stations annihilated a
+  3× threat swarm through approach fire alone).
+- **Accepted imbalances**: the carrier loses its equal-threat fights
+  until the drone-launching capability exists (the hangar is dead
+  threat) — fix by implementing drones, not stats. A pure smallest-ship
+  fleet modestly loses (~15–25%) to a range-fitted capital — desirable
+  doctrine texture; the fair anti-capital answer is the mixed fleet.
+
+## Pacing anchors
+
+- **Starting set** is the rule-minimum: drone, frigate, small gun,
+  salvager (plus the explicitly unlocked building-block recipe).
+- **Threat rate shape**: below the player's achievable military output
+  (≈ half the factory curve) early, crossing at the late boundary
+  (~cycle 15), overwhelming by ~cycle 24.
+- **Winning = five real decisions**: `artifact_win_count` is set so that
+  across a winning run's ~15–18 pushes (~7 cumulative artifact offers at
+  the current chance formula), the player must choose the artifact over
+  a schematic about five times.