Combat stats round 4 from arena round 3 margins

Round 3 (narrow lanes; arena geometry is part of the fixture from
here): dreadnought closed to -11%, battleship improved to +22%, the
drone swarm flipped to +14% over cruisers under full engagement, glass
beat armored for the third consecutive round, mirrors/repair/
two-to-one healthy, stations cracked at 51% by the 3x swarm under the
new geometry (watch, not touched).

Round-4 knobs: armor_plates 1000 -> 1200 (~37 HP/threat; persistent
glass signal, also lifts armor-carrying cruiser/BC/destroyer/DN
loadouts), battlecruiser hull 2500 -> 2000 (net -300 EHP after its
armor gain), battleship 7000 -> 6300 (loadout has no armor, clean
-10%), dreadnought/carrier 19000 -> 22500 (opposing destroyers gain
armor too, so the larger step). Anchors doc notes the emerging shape:
the arena prices capitals as tanks with taxed guns.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DyCu8vwChKMbLJQ3xosYEN

docs/content_design.md

@@ -458,15 +458,18 @@ verifies it empirically. Change the anchors first, re-derive stats second.
   time) as the *prior*; per-hull HP is the empirical trim knob for
   arena results (guns are shared across many hulls, so gun changes move
   many matchups at once — hull HP moves exactly one). Current values
-  after round-2 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
-  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2500, battleship 7000,
-  dreadnought/carrier 19000.
-- **Armor HP ≈ 31 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
+  after round-3 trims: drone 60, frigate 300, destroyer 550,
+  cruiser 1500, battlecruiser 2000, battleship 6300,
+  dreadnought/carrier 22500. (The capital hulls sit well above the
+  15/threat prior while their guns sit below the DPS prior — the arena
+  consistently prices big ships as tanks with taxed guns.)
+- **Armor HP ≈ 37 per threat** — a strong premium over hull HP (15)
   because armor is pure HP with no capability, and fights snowball:
   killing enemies removes their DPS, while surviving merely delays —
   so a point of HP must be cheaper than a point of DPS.
-  armor_plates adds 1000 HP at 32 threat (arena round 1: at 640 the
-  all-guns destroyer beat the armored one).
+  armor_plates adds 1200 HP at 32 threat (raised from 640 → 1000 →
+  1200: the all-guns destroyer beat the armored one in three
+  consecutive arena rounds).
 - **TTK check:** a mirror cruiser duel (51 DPS vs 2140 EHP) lasts ~42 s —
   inside the 30–60 s parity-fight band implied by the 25-ship fleet
   target. Capital mirrors run longer (~90 s), deliberately.
@@ -514,6 +517,23 @@ DPS (17→14, 70→52 damage), armor 640→1000, repair 25→12, station range
 still win flawlessly in round 2, the range ladder (kiting) is the next
 suspect, ahead of further DPS cuts.
 
+**Arena round 3 results (2026-07-04, narrow lanes):** arenas were
+narrowed (height 10) so fleets can no longer pass each other — arena
+geometry is part of the fixture from here on; margins are only
+comparable within the same geometry. Results: mirrors healthy (1–7%);
+dreadnought closed to −11%; battleship improved to +22% (still over);
+drone swarm now beats cruisers by 14% (full engagement in the narrow
+lane favors numbers); mixed vs battlecruisers +18%; glass beat armored
+for the third consecutive round (+12%); repair 14%, two-to-one 78%,
+station set cracked at 51% by the 3× swarm (geometry changed under the
+stations — watch before touching stats). Round-4 knob changes:
+armor_plates 1000→1200 (the persistent glass signal; also lifts the
+armor-carrying cruiser/BC/destroyer/DN loadouts), battlecruiser hull
+2500→2000 (net −300 EHP after its armor gain), battleship 7000→6300
+(no armor in its loadout, clean −10%), dreadnought/carrier
+19000→22500 (the opposing destroyers gain armor too, so the DN needs
+the larger step).
+
 **Arena round 2 results (2026-07-04, with EHP-margin logging):** the
 mirror "bias" was noise — repeated runs split randomly, and winners
 finish at 5–7% EHP (near-mutual annihilation, healthy). Drones vs